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BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
134829th
Point Diff / Game
-6.628th
Net EPA / Play
-0.10828th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL@
L
03-47
-44
+8
L
93
2
LAC logo
LAC
L
20-31
-11
+7.5
L
-96
3
MIN logo
MIN@
W
27-06
+21
+16.5
W
19
4
GB logo
GB@
L
00-22
-22
+9
L
-42
5
TEN logo
TEN
W
13-12
+1
+6
W
-3
6
HOU logo
HOU@
L
13-20
-7
+10
W
-40
7
IND logo
IND@
L
05-37
-32
+7
L
-22
8
NE logo
NE
L
06-25
-19
+14
L
-44
9
CHI logo
CHI
L
09-41
-32
+10
L
48
10
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
41-10
+31
+7
W
2
11BYE WEEK
12
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-21
+3
+3
W
17
13
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-21
-4
+3.5
L
19
14
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
23-27
-4
-4.5
L
-10
15
DET logo
DET
W
14-13
+1
-2.5
L
14
16
NE logo
NE@
L
12-24
-12
+13.5
W
-0
17
MIA logo
MIA
W
42-17
+25
-5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.21
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.26
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.06
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.10
4th
EPA / Pass
-0.14
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.07
10th
Sack EPA
-4.51
17th
Turnover EPA
-7.96
6th
Point Differential
-6.6
28th
Points For
16.8
30th
Points Against
23.4
19th
Total Yards
296.9
30th
Passing Yards
149.3
32nd
Rushing Yards
124.0
8th
Total Yards Allowed
294.1
2nd
Passing Allowed
145.8
1st
Rushing Allowed
114.9
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
32%
30th
4th Down
39%
31st
Red Zone
59%
16th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
11th
4th Down
55%
13th
Red Zone
71%
30th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
29th
Created
1.8
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.4
31st
Created
1.0
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
11th
Created
0.8
2nd