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  4. 2021
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-7
nfelo Rating
17232nd
Point Diff / Game
+11.51st
Net EPA / Play
+0.2111st

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
L
16-23
-7
-6.5
L
-12
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
35-00
+35
-3.5
W
29
3
WAS logo
WAS
W
43-21
+22
-7
W
21
4
HOU logo
HOU
W
40-00
+40
-18.5
W
16
5
KC logo
KC@
W
38-20
+18
+2.5
W
23
6
TEN logo
TEN@
L
31-34
-3
-6
L
-7
7BYE WEEK
8
MIA logo
MIA
W
26-11
+15
-15
P
12
9
JAX logo
JAX@
L
06-09
-3
-14.5
L
-25
10
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
45-17
+28
-13
W
9
11
IND logo
IND
L
15-41
-26
-7
L
-22
12
NO logo
NO@
W
31-06
+25
-7
W
52
13
NE logo
NE
L
10-14
-4
-3
L
-17
14
TB logo
TB@
L
27-33
-6
+3.5
L
4
15
CAR logo
CAR
W
31-14
+17
-14.5
W
3
16
NE logo
NE@
W
33-21
+12
+1
W
22
17
ATL logo
ATL
W
29-15
+14
-14.5
L
-21
18
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-10
+17
-16
W
3
19
NE logo
NE
W
47-17
+30
-4.5
W
32
20
KC logo
KC@
L
36-42
-6
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.16
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.10
1st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.11
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.14
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
12th
Sack EPA
-2.07
1st
Turnover EPA
-4.66
26th
Point Differential
+11.5
1st
Points For
29.8
3rd
Points Against
18.3
1st
Total Yards
389.7
5th
Passing Yards
163.8
30th
Rushing Yards
131.3
6th
Total Yards Allowed
289.5
1st
Passing Allowed
158.9
5th
Rushing Allowed
112.6
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
2nd
4th Down
58%
12th
Red Zone
66%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
1st
4th Down
53%
15th
Red Zone
54%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
13th
Created
1.6
6th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
19th
Created
1.1
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
10th
Created
0.5
10th