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  4. 2025
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

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Season Overview

Record
9-4
nfelo Rating
16085th
Point Diff / Game
+6.46th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1098th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
W
41-40
+1
+1.5
W
13
2
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
30-10
+20
-5.5
W
4
3
MIA logo
MIA
W
31-21
+10
-11.5
L
6
4
NO logo
NO
W
31-19
+12
-14.5
L
-8
5
NE logo
NE
L
20-23
-3
-7.5
L
-12
6
ATL logo
ATL@
L
14-24
-10
-3.5
L
-22
7BYE WEEK
8
CAR logo
CAR@
W
40-09
+31
-7
W
14
9
KC logo
KC
W
28-21
+7
+2.5
W
14
10
MIA logo
MIA@
L
13-30
-17
-8.5
L
-14
11
TB logo
TB
W
44-32
+12
-6.5
W
18
12
HOU logo
HOU@
L
19-23
-4
-5.5
L
-24
13
PIT logo
PIT@
W
26-07
+19
-3
W
17
14
CIN logo
CIN
W
39-34
+5
-6
L
-13
15
NE logo
NE@
12/14
-
-1
-
-
16
CLE logo
CLE@
12/21
-
-
-
17
PHI logo
PHI
12/28
-
-
-
18
NYJ logo
NYJ
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.16
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.19
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.07
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.08
10th
EPA / Rush
+0.07
29th
Sack EPA
-3.04
7th
Turnover EPA
-5.24
16th
Point Differential
+6.4
6th
Points For
28.9
5th
Points Against
22.5
14th
Total Yards
383.8
2nd
Passing Yards
192.2
10th
Rushing Yards
157.8
1st
Total Yards Allowed
307.2
10th
Passing Allowed
135.7
3rd
Rushing Allowed
135.2
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
4th
4th Down
62%
10th
Red Zone
62%
9th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
23rd
4th Down
64%
24th
Red Zone
59%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
17th
Created
1.4
8th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
18th
Created
0.8
12th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.6
5th