nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. teams...
  3. buf...
  4. 2025
BUF logo

Buffalo Bills

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

Season Overview

Record
13-6
nfelo Rating
16353rd
Point Diff / Game
+6.16th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1106th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
BAL logo
BAL
W
41-40
+1
+1.5
W
13
2
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
30-10
+20
-5.5
W
4
3
MIA logo
MIA
W
31-21
+10
-11.5
L
7
4
NO logo
NO
W
31-19
+12
-14.5
L
-8
5
NE logo
NE
L
20-23
-3
-7.5
L
-12
6
ATL logo
ATL@
L
14-24
-10
-3.5
L
-22
7BYE WEEK
8
CAR logo
CAR@
W
40-09
+31
-7
W
14
9
KC logo
KC
W
28-21
+7
+2.5
W
14
10
MIA logo
MIA@
L
13-30
-17
-8.5
L
-14
11
TB logo
TB
W
44-32
+12
-6.5
W
18
12
HOU logo
HOU@
L
19-23
-4
-5.5
L
-24
13
PIT logo
PIT@
W
26-07
+19
-3
W
17
14
CIN logo
CIN
W
39-34
+5
-6
L
-10
15
NE logo
NE@
W
35-31
+4
-2.5
W
19
16
CLE logo
CLE@
W
23-20
+3
-10.5
L
-14
17
PHI logo
PHI
L
12-13
-1
-3
L
-112
18
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
35-08
+27
-12.5
W
111
19
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-24
+3
+1.5
W
21
20
DEN logo
DEN@
L
30-33
-3
+1.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.15
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.18
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.08
3rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
19th
EPA / Pass
-0.10
9th
EPA / Rush
+0.08
31st
Sack EPA
-3.72
17th
Turnover EPA
-5.18
17th
Point Differential
+6.1
6th
Points For
28.3
3rd
Points Against
22.2
12th
Total Yards
378.4
3rd
Passing Yards
184.9
14th
Rushing Yards
156.6
1st
Total Yards Allowed
299.7
8th
Passing Allowed
126.6
1st
Rushing Allowed
133.6
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
46%
3rd
4th Down
63%
6th
Red Zone
67%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
25th
4th Down
52%
11th
Red Zone
58%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
18th
Created
1.3
15th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
10th
Created
0.8
10th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
26th
Created
0.4
20th