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  4. 2021
CAR logo

Carolina Panthers

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-12
nfelo Rating
134328th
Point Diff / Game
-5.926th
Net EPA / Play
-0.09924th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
19-14
+5
-3.5
W
4
2
NO logo
NO
W
26-07
+19
+3
W
49
3
HOU logo
HOU@
W
24-09
+15
-8
W
33
4
DAL logo
DAL@
L
28-36
-8
+4.5
L
-10
5
PHI logo
PHI
L
18-21
-3
-2.5
L
-38
6
MIN logo
MIN
L
28-34
-6
+2
L
-42
7
NYG logo
NYG@
L
03-25
-22
-3
L
-22
8
ATL logo
ATL@
W
19-13
+6
+2.5
W
11
9
NE logo
NE
L
06-24
-18
+3
L
-89
10
ARI logo
ARI@
W
34-10
+24
+7
W
178
11
WAS logo
WAS
L
21-27
-6
-3.5
L
-7
12
MIA logo
MIA@
L
10-33
-23
-44
13BYE WEEK
14
ATL logo
ATL
L
21-29
-8
-2.5
L
-34
15
BUF logo
BUF@
L
14-31
-17
+14.5
L
-13
16
TB logo
TB
L
06-32
-26
+11
L
-56
17
NO logo
NO@
L
10-18
-8
+6.5
L
-22
18
TB logo
TB@
L
17-41
-24
+10.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.16
32nd
EPA / Pass
-0.23
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.04
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.07
7th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
4th
Sack EPA
-5.37
28th
Turnover EPA
-8.19
1st
Point Differential
-5.9
26th
Points For
17.9
29th
Points Against
23.8
20th
Total Yards
299.2
30th
Passing Yards
172.9
29th
Rushing Yards
108.4
20th
Total Yards Allowed
306.2
2nd
Passing Allowed
134.4
1st
Rushing Allowed
113.9
18th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
29th
4th Down
41%
31st
Red Zone
53%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
8th
4th Down
57%
18th
Red Zone
67%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
30th
Created
0.9
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
32nd
Created
0.5
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
13th
Created
0.4
18th