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  4. 2009
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
143223rd
Point Diff / Game
-3.021st
Net EPA / Play
-0.06122nd

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB@
L
15-21
-6
+5
L
-52
2
PIT logo
PIT
W
17-14
+3
+3
W
9
3
SEA logo
SEA@
W
25-19
+6
-3
W
49
4
DET logo
DET
W
48-24
+24
-10
W
2
5BYE WEEK
6
ATL logo
ATL@
L
14-21
-7
+4
L
-12
7
CIN logo
CIN@
L
10-45
-35
-2
L
-21
8
CLE logo
CLE
W
30-06
+24
-12
W
-3
9
ARI logo
ARI
L
21-41
-20
-2
L
-16
10
SF logo
SF@
L
06-10
-4
+3.5
L
-18
11
PHI logo
PHI
L
20-24
-4
+4
P
-17
12
MIN logo
MIN@
L
10-36
-26
+10.5
L
-22
13
LAR logo
LAR
W
17-09
+8
-9
L
-11
14
GB logo
GB
L
14-21
-7
+4
L
-2
15
BAL logo
BAL@
L
07-31
-24
+11
L
-31
16
MIN logo
MIN
W
36-30
+6
+8.5
W
18
17
DET logo
DET@
W
37-23
+14
-4.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.11
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.10
21st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.00
18th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
15th
Sack EPA
-2.82
8th
Turnover EPA
-9.05
3rd
Point Differential
-3.0
21st
Points For
20.4
19th
Points Against
23.4
21st
Total Yards
310.6
23rd
Passing Yards
198.2
11th
Rushing Yards
93.2
29th
Total Yards Allowed
338.0
17th
Passing Allowed
186.3
19th
Rushing Allowed
125.6
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
18th
4th Down
39%
25th
Red Zone
47%
25th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
27th
4th Down
46%
11th
Red Zone
66%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
28th
Created
1.8
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.7
30th
Created
0.8
22nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.9
3rd