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  4. 2011
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2011 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
153915th
Point Diff / Game
+0.816th
Net EPA / Play
-0.00118th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL
W
30-12
+18
+2
W
12
2
NO logo
NO@
L
13-30
-17
+5
L
-17
3
GB logo
GB
L
17-27
-10
+4.5
L
-15
4
CAR logo
CAR
W
34-29
+5
-7
L
-9
5
DET logo
DET@
L
13-24
-11
+6.5
L
-19
6
MIN logo
MIN
W
39-10
+29
-2.5
W
19
7
TB logo
TB@
W
24-18
+6
-1.5
W
2
8BYE WEEK
9
PHI logo
PHI@
W
30-24
+6
+8
W
15
10
DET logo
DET
W
37-13
+24
-3
W
52
11
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-20
+11
-4.5
W
-93
12
OAK logo
OAK@
L
20-25
-5
+3
L
6
13
KC logo
KC
L
03-10
-7
-8.5
L
-20
14
DEN logo
DEN@
L
10-13
-3
+3
P
5
15
SEA logo
SEA
L
14-38
-24
-3.5
L
65
16
GB logo
GB@
L
21-35
-14
+13.5
L
-20
17
MIN logo
MIN@
W
17-13
+4
+2.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.16
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
19th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
4th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
2nd
Sack EPA
-4.38
21st
Turnover EPA
-7.94
8th
Point Differential
+0.8
16th
Points For
22.1
17th
Points Against
21.3
14th
Total Yards
314.3
25th
Passing Yards
142.2
30th
Rushing Yards
126.1
9th
Total Yards Allowed
350.9
17th
Passing Allowed
213.7
22nd
Rushing Allowed
96.4
5th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
27th
4th Down
25%
30th
Red Zone
53%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
9th
4th Down
41%
14th
Red Zone
45%
7th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.9
26th
Created
1.8
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
25th
Created
1.3
5th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
22nd
Created
0.6
18th