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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
149315th
Point Diff / Game
-2.121st
Net EPA / Play
-0.03421st

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CIN logo
CIN
W
24-21
+3
-3
P
6
2
MIN logo
MIN
W
31-30
+1
-6
L
-1
3
PIT logo
PIT@
W
40-23
+17
-2.5
W
25
4
DET logo
DET@
L
32-40
-8
+3
L
-11
5
NO logo
NO
L
18-26
-8
-14
6
NYG logo
NYG
W
27-21
+6
-8.5
L
1
7
WAS logo
WAS@
L
41-45
-4
-1
L
-85
8BYE WEEK
9
GB logo
GB@
W
27-20
+7
+10
W
73
10
DET logo
DET
L
19-21
-2
+1
L
-47
11
BAL logo
BAL
W
23-20
+3
-3
P
16
12
LAR logo
LAR@
L
21-42
-21
+2.5
L
-4
13
MIN logo
MIN@
L
20-23
-3
+1.5
L
-3
14
DAL logo
DAL
W
45-28
+17
-1.5
W
-0
15
CLE logo
CLE@
W
38-31
+7
-1
W
37
16
PHI logo
PHI@
L
11-54
-43
+3
L
-19
17
GB logo
GB
L
28-33
-5
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.08
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.14
6th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.11
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.04
16th
EPA / Rush
+0.11
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.90
12th
Turnover EPA
-7.86
11th
Point Differential
-2.1
21st
Points For
27.8
4th
Points Against
29.9
30th
Total Yards
382.4
7th
Passing Yards
236.6
7th
Rushing Yards
114.4
15th
Total Yards Allowed
394.7
29th
Passing Allowed
202.5
13th
Rushing Allowed
161.4
32nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
7th
4th Down
62%
8th
Red Zone
57%
7th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
25th
4th Down
75%
30th
Red Zone
58%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
15th
Created
1.8
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
12th
Created
1.2
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
17th
Created
0.6
20th