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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
143022nd
Point Diff / Game
-3.921st
Net EPA / Play
-0.06520th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
L
23-31
-8
+6.5
L
-8
2
ARI logo
ARI
L
23-48
-25
+2
L
-129
3
SEA logo
SEA@
L
00-26
-26
+16.5
L
113
4
OAK logo
OAK
W
22-20
+2
+3
W
-4
5
KC logo
KC@
W
18-17
+1
+9.5
W
11
6
DET logo
DET@
L
34-37
-3
+3.5
W
9
7BYE WEEK
8
MIN logo
MIN
L
20-23
-3
+1.5
L
1
9
LAC logo
LAC@
W
22-19
+3
+3.5
W
36
10
LAR logo
LAR@
W
37-13
+24
+7
W
21
11
DEN logo
DEN
L
15-17
-2
+2
P
-14
12
GB logo
GB@
W
17-13
+4
+8
W
7
13
SF logo
SF
L
20-26
-6
-6.5
L
-27
14
WAS logo
WAS
L
21-24
-3
-4
L
-6
15
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-38
-21
+4
L
-15
16
TB logo
TB@
W
26-21
+5
+3
W
9
17
DET logo
DET
L
20-24
-4
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.02
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
10th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.05
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.11
22nd
EPA / Rush
-0.04
26th
Sack EPA
-4.38
23rd
Turnover EPA
-6.02
18th
Point Differential
-3.9
21st
Points For
20.9
22nd
Points Against
24.8
20th
Total Yards
344.9
19th
Passing Yards
228.9
11th
Rushing Yards
116.0
11th
Total Yards Allowed
345.4
14th
Passing Allowed
201.2
10th
Rushing Allowed
120.9
22nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
7th
4th Down
60%
5th
Red Zone
47%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
29th
4th Down
42%
9th
Red Zone
60%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
15th
Created
0.9
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
11th
Created
0.5
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.7
21st
Created
0.4
26th