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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2018 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-5
nfelo Rating
16483rd
Point Diff / Game
+8.13rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1483rd

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB@
L
23-24
-1
+7
W
8
2
SEA logo
SEA
W
24-17
+7
-4.5
W
39
3
ARI logo
ARI@
W
16-14
+2
-4.5
L
0
4
TB logo
TB
W
48-10
+38
-3
W
45
5BYE WEEK
6
MIA logo
MIA@
L
28-31
-3
-7
L
-1
7
NE logo
NE
L
31-38
-7
+2
L
-3
8
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
24-10
+14
-8.5
W
14
9
BUF logo
BUF@
W
41-09
+32
-10
W
25
10
DET logo
DET
W
34-22
+12
-7
W
31
11
MIN logo
MIN
W
25-20
+5
-2.5
W
-169
12
DET logo
DET@
W
23-16
+7
-3
W
61
13
NYG logo
NYG@
L
27-30
-3
-3.5
L
162
14
LAR logo
LAR
W
15-06
+9
+3
W
-8
15
GB logo
GB
W
24-17
+7
-5.5
W
5
16
SF logo
SF@
W
14-09
+5
-3.5
W
-8
17
MIN logo
MIN@
W
24-10
+14
+6
W
11
18
PHI logo
PHI
L
15-16
-1
-6.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.08
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
17th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.15
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.12
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.19
1st
Sack EPA
-3.22
5th
Turnover EPA
-6.35
13th
Point Differential
+8.1
3rd
Points For
25.6
10th
Points Against
17.6
1st
Total Yards
345.1
21st
Passing Yards
217.5
13th
Rushing Yards
117.8
14th
Total Yards Allowed
300.1
3rd
Passing Allowed
199.8
12th
Rushing Allowed
77.8
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
13th
4th Down
60%
10th
Red Zone
62%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
4th
4th Down
59%
17th
Red Zone
50%
4th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
19th
Created
2.2
1st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
20th
Created
1.7
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
20th
Created
0.5
17th