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CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2019 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-8
nfelo Rating
145921st
Point Diff / Game
-1.118th
Net EPA / Play
-0.01918th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
L
03-10
-7
-3
L
-21
2
DEN logo
DEN@
W
16-14
+2
-2.5
L
-5
3
WAS logo
WAS@
W
31-15
+16
-5
W
25
4
MIN logo
MIN
W
16-06
+10
-108
5
OAK logo
OAK@
L
21-24
-3
-6.5
L
107
6BYE WEEK
7
NO logo
NO
L
25-36
-11
-4.5
L
-8
8
LAC logo
LAC
L
16-17
-1
-3.5
L
-21
9
PHI logo
PHI@
L
14-22
-8
+5
L
-24
10
DET logo
DET
W
20-13
+7
-6.5
W
-10
11
LAR logo
LAR@
L
07-17
-10
+5.5
L
-9
12
NYG logo
NYG
W
19-14
+5
-6
L
-2
13
DET logo
DET@
W
24-20
+4
-5.5
L
14
14
DAL logo
DAL
W
31-24
+7
+3
W
21
15
GB logo
GB@
L
13-21
-8
+4.5
L
-17
16
KC logo
KC
L
03-26
-23
+7
L
-44
17
MIN logo
MIN@
W
21-19
+2
-4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.10
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
29th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
6th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
11th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
6th
Sack EPA
-4.73
19th
Turnover EPA
-4.94
22nd
Point Differential
-1.1
18th
Points For
17.5
29th
Points Against
18.6
4th
Total Yards
296.9
29th
Passing Yards
198.3
18th
Rushing Yards
91.1
27th
Total Yards Allowed
324.3
8th
Passing Allowed
189.3
11th
Rushing Allowed
102.0
9th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
25th
4th Down
33%
29th
Red Zone
52%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
6th
4th Down
57%
23rd
Red Zone
54%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
10th
Created
1.2
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
16th
Created
0.6
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.6
14th