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  4. 2023
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-10
nfelo Rating
149017th
Point Diff / Game
-1.119th
Net EPA / Play
-0.00515th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
L
20-38
-18
-1
L
-12
2
TB logo
TB@
L
17-27
-10
+2.5
L
-19
3
KC logo
KC@
L
10-41
-31
+12.5
L
-23
4
DEN logo
DEN
L
28-31
-3
+3
P
15
5
WAS logo
WAS@
W
40-20
+20
+6
W
21
6
MIN logo
MIN
L
13-19
-6
+3
L
-94
7
OAK logo
OAK
W
30-12
+18
+2.5
W
25
8
LAC logo
LAC@
L
13-30
-17
+9.5
L
-1
9
NO logo
NO@
L
17-24
-7
+9
W
23
10
CAR logo
CAR
W
16-13
+3
-3
P
58
11
DET logo
DET@
L
26-31
-5
+8
W
29
12
MIN logo
MIN@
W
12-10
+2
+3
W
14
13BYE WEEK
14
DET logo
DET
W
28-13
+15
+3
W
18
15
CLE logo
CLE@
L
17-20
-3
+2.5
L
2
16
ARI logo
ARI
W
27-16
+11
-4.5
W
17
17
ATL logo
ATL
W
37-17
+20
-2.5
W
15
18
GB logo
GB@
L
09-17
-8
+2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.08
23rd
EPA / Pass
-0.15
25th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
3rd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.07
8th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.15
2nd
Sack EPA
-5.79
25th
Turnover EPA
-6.26
10th
Point Differential
-1.1
19th
Points For
21.2
19th
Points Against
22.3
19th
Total Yards
323.4
21st
Passing Yards
172.6
23rd
Rushing Yards
141.2
2nd
Total Yards Allowed
324.4
12th
Passing Allowed
171.4
9th
Rushing Allowed
86.5
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
10th
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
57%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
29th
4th Down
43%
4th
Red Zone
69%
31st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
20th
Created
1.7
3rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
22nd
Created
1.3
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
16th
Created
0.4
26th