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  4. 2025
CHI logo

Chicago Bears

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-7
nfelo Rating
156610th
Point Diff / Game
+1.415th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02714th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN
L
24-27
-3
-1
L
3
2
DET logo
DET@
L
21-52
-31
+6.5
L
-15
3
DAL logo
DAL
W
31-14
+17
+1.5
W
22
4
OAK logo
OAK@
W
25-24
+1
+1.5
W
-8
5BYE WEEK
6
WAS logo
WAS@
W
25-24
+1
+5.5
W
7
7
NO logo
NO
W
26-14
+12
-3.5
W
-2
8
BAL logo
BAL@
L
16-30
-14
+2.5
L
-21
9
CIN logo
CIN@
W
47-42
+5
-3
W
42
10
NYG logo
NYG
W
24-20
+4
-4.5
L
-8
11
MIN logo
MIN@
W
19-17
+2
+2.5
W
-2
12
PIT logo
PIT
W
31-28
+3
-3
P
3
13
PHI logo
PHI@
W
24-15
+9
+7
W
3
14
GB logo
GB@
L
21-28
-7
+6.5
L
-3
15
CLE logo
CLE
W
31-03
+28
-7.5
W
25
16
GB logo
GB
W
22-16
+6
-1.5
W
42
17
SF logo
SF@
L
38-42
-4
+3.5
L
14
18
DET logo
DET
L
16-19
-3
-3.5
L
-10
19
GB logo
GB
W
31-27
+4
+2
W
-1
20
LAR logo
LAR
L
17-20
-3
+3.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.07
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.09
9th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.06
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.00
21st
Sack EPA
-2.29
1st
Turnover EPA
-3.12
31st
Point Differential
+1.4
15th
Points For
25.7
9th
Points Against
24.3
23rd
Total Yards
376.2
4th
Passing Yards
162.3
23rd
Rushing Yards
142.5
3rd
Total Yards Allowed
364.1
29th
Passing Allowed
188.9
22nd
Rushing Allowed
131.4
26th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
5th
4th Down
49%
23rd
Red Zone
56%
19th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
19th
4th Down
56%
17th
Red Zone
58%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
3rd
Created
1.7
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
10th
Created
1.2
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
2nd
Created
0.5
13th