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  4. 2014
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2014 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-5
nfelo Rating
16912nd
Point Diff / Game
+6.94th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1126th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND
W
31-24
+7
-8
L
-27
2
KC logo
KC
W
24-17
+7
-13
L
-3
3
SEA logo
SEA@
L
20-26
-6
+4
L
-7
4BYE WEEK
5
ARI logo
ARI
W
41-20
+21
-8
W
21
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
31-17
+14
-9.5
W
31
7
SF logo
SF
W
42-17
+25
-6.5
W
25
8
LAC logo
LAC
W
35-21
+14
-9
W
27
9
NE logo
NE@
L
21-43
-22
-3
L
-16
10
OAK logo
OAK@
W
41-17
+24
-12.5
W
11
11
LAR logo
LAR@
L
07-22
-15
-9
L
-21
12
MIA logo
MIA
W
39-36
+3
-7
L
-14
13
KC logo
KC@
W
29-16
+13
-3
14
BUF logo
BUF
W
24-17
+7
-9.5
L
-18
15
LAC logo
LAC@
W
22-10
+12
-4.5
W
3
16
CIN logo
CIN@
L
28-37
-9
-3.5
L
-18
17
OAK logo
OAK
W
47-14
+33
-16
W
21
18BYE WEEK
19
IND logo
IND
L
13-24
-11
-9.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.05
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
5th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
9th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.06
10th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.14
6th
Sack EPA
-2.20
2nd
Turnover EPA
-5.06
27th
Point Differential
+6.9
4th
Points For
29.1
4th
Points Against
22.2
17th
Total Yards
396.4
5th
Passing Yards
238.4
4th
Rushing Yards
110.2
15th
Total Yards Allowed
308.8
3rd
Passing Allowed
178.6
5th
Rushing Allowed
81.0
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
11th
4th Down
47%
17th
Red Zone
63%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
6th
4th Down
59%
26th
Red Zone
59%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
9th
Created
1.5
18th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
16th
Created
1.2
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
5th
Created
0.4
28th