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  4. 2016
DEN logo

Denver Broncos

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
9-7
nfelo Rating
153511th
Point Diff / Game
+2.39th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03212th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
W
21-20
+1
+3
W
7
2
IND logo
IND
W
34-20
+14
-6
W
17
3
CIN logo
CIN@
W
29-17
+12
+3.5
W
48
4
TB logo
TB@
W
27-07
+20
-3.5
W
62
5
ATL logo
ATL
L
16-23
-7
-4
L
-108
6
LAC logo
LAC@
L
13-21
-8
-3
L
-5
7
HOU logo
HOU
W
27-09
+18
-8.5
W
27
8
LAC logo
LAC
W
27-19
+8
-3.5
W
2
9
OAK logo
OAK@
L
20-30
-10
-7
10
NO logo
NO@
W
25-23
+2
+3
W
1
11BYE WEEK
12
KC logo
KC
L
27-30
-3
-3.5
L
18
13
JAX logo
JAX@
W
20-10
+10
-3.5
W
-5
14
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-13
-3
+2
L
-14
15
NE logo
NE
L
03-16
-13
+3
L
-19
16
KC logo
KC@
L
10-33
-23
+3.5
L
-25
17
OAK logo
OAK
W
24-06
+18
-1
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.09
25th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.16
30th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.12
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.25
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.01
27th
Sack EPA
-3.82
15th
Turnover EPA
-5.34
18th
Point Differential
+2.3
9th
Points For
20.8
21st
Points Against
18.6
3rd
Total Yards
323.2
27th
Passing Yards
196.3
19th
Rushing Yards
92.8
27th
Total Yards Allowed
316.2
4th
Passing Allowed
170.5
5th
Rushing Allowed
130.3
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
34%
31st
4th Down
53%
11th
Red Zone
47%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
5th
4th Down
38%
8th
Red Zone
51%
9th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
22nd
Created
1.7
6th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
12th
Created
0.9
14th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
31st
Created
0.8
2nd