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  4. 2009
DET logo

Detroit Lions

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
2-14
nfelo Rating
120832nd
Point Diff / Game
-14.531st
Net EPA / Play
-0.24631st

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO@
L
27-45
-18
+14
L
-38
2
MIN logo
MIN
L
13-27
-14
+10
L
-14
3
WAS logo
WAS
W
19-14
+5
+6
W
13
4
CHI logo
CHI@
L
24-48
-24
+10
L
-57
5
PIT logo
PIT
L
20-28
-8
+11
W
25
6
GB logo
GB@
L
00-26
-26
+14
L
48
7BYE WEEK
8
LAR logo
LAR
L
10-17
-7
-3
L
-27
9
SEA logo
SEA@
L
20-32
-12
+11
L
-29
10
MIN logo
MIN@
L
10-27
-17
+17
P
2
11
CLE logo
CLE
W
38-37
+1
-3
L
9
12
GB logo
GB
L
12-34
-22
+11.5
L
-30
13
CIN logo
CIN@
L
13-23
-10
+13.5
W
-27
14
BAL logo
BAL@
L
03-48
-45
+14
L
-17
15
ARI logo
ARI
L
24-31
-7
+14
W
80
16
SF logo
SF@
L
06-20
-14
+14
P
-73
17
CHI logo
CHI
L
23-37
-14
+4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.17
30th
EPA / Pass
-0.24
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
29th
EPA / Pass
+0.21
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.12
7th
Sack EPA
-3.95
21st
Turnover EPA
-9.92
1st
Point Differential
-14.5
31st
Points For
16.4
27th
Points Against
30.9
32nd
Total Yards
299.1
26th
Passing Yards
198.1
12th
Rushing Yards
101.0
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
392.3
32nd
Passing Allowed
215.3
30th
Rushing Allowed
126.4
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
36%
23rd
4th Down
27%
32nd
Red Zone
47%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
25th
4th Down
67%
29th
Red Zone
52%
17th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.6
32nd
Created
1.4
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
2.0
32nd
Created
0.6
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
13th
Created
0.8
7th