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DET logo

Detroit Lions

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
149216th
Point Diff / Game
+1.213th
Net EPA / Play
+0.01514th

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN
W
34-24
+10
-4
W
15
2
ARI logo
ARI@
L
21-25
-4
-2
L
4
3
WAS logo
WAS@
W
27-20
+7
-1
W
38
4
CHI logo
CHI
W
40-32
+8
-3
W
5
5
GB logo
GB@
L
09-22
-13
+10
L
-30
6
CLE logo
CLE@
W
31-17
+14
-2
W
35
7
CIN logo
CIN
L
24-27
-3
-2.5
L
-3
8
DAL logo
DAL
W
31-30
+1
-3
L
3
9BYE WEEK
10
CHI logo
CHI@
W
21-19
+2
-1
W
-5
11
PIT logo
PIT@
L
27-37
-10
-3
L
-12
12
TB logo
TB
L
21-24
-3
-7
L
-29
13
GB logo
GB
W
40-10
+30
-6.5
W
36
14
PHI logo
PHI@
L
20-34
-14
+2.5
L
-19
15
BAL logo
BAL
L
16-18
-2
-5
L
-15
16
NYG logo
NYG
L
20-23
-3
-9.5
L
-17
17
MIN logo
MIN@
L
13-14
-1
-1.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.00
19th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
25th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
12th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.20
1st
Sack EPA
-2.68
2nd
Turnover EPA
-10.09
2nd
Point Differential
+1.2
13th
Points For
24.7
12th
Points Against
23.5
14th
Total Yards
392.4
5th
Passing Yards
212.5
16th
Rushing Yards
112.0
17th
Total Yards Allowed
347.1
16th
Passing Allowed
223.1
24th
Rushing Allowed
99.9
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
6th
4th Down
36%
25th
Red Zone
63%
4th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
30%
1st
4th Down
75%
30th
Red Zone
38%
1st

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
31st
Created
1.4
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
20th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
31st
Created
0.4
27th