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DET logo

Detroit Lions

2014 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
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    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-6
nfelo Rating
154712th
Point Diff / Game
+2.113th
Net EPA / Play
+0.03713th

2014 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NYG logo
NYG
W
35-14
+21
-6.5
W
46
2
CAR logo
CAR@
L
07-24
-17
+1
L
-13
3
GB logo
GB
W
19-07
+12
-1
W
2
4
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
24-17
+7
+1.5
W
14
5
BUF logo
BUF
L
14-17
-3
-4.5
L
-16
6
MIN logo
MIN@
W
17-03
+14
+1.5
W
5
7
NO logo
NO
W
24-23
+1
-1.5
L
10
8
ATL logo
ATL@
W
22-21
+1
-3.5
L
-1
9BYE WEEK
10
MIA logo
MIA
W
20-16
+4
-3
W
2
11
ARI logo
ARI@
L
06-14
-8
-1
L
-15
12
NE logo
NE@
L
09-34
-25
+7
L
-17
13
CHI logo
CHI
W
34-17
+17
-7
W
48
14
TB logo
TB
W
34-17
+17
-10.5
W
17
15
MIN logo
MIN
W
16-14
+2
-8
L
-7
16
CHI logo
CHI@
W
20-14
+6
-10
L
-21
17
GB logo
GB@
L
20-30
-10
+8.5
L
3
18
DAL logo
DAL@
L
20-24
-4
+6.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.05
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
24th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.11
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.02
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.26
1st
Sack EPA
-4.35
20th
Turnover EPA
-4.74
28th
Point Differential
+2.1
13th
Points For
20.1
22nd
Points Against
18.0
3rd
Total Yards
344.2
17th
Passing Yards
227.1
7th
Rushing Yards
88.9
28th
Total Yards Allowed
302.0
2nd
Passing Allowed
193.8
13th
Rushing Allowed
69.6
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
23rd
4th Down
48%
16th
Red Zone
53%
15th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
10th
4th Down
47%
17th
Red Zone
51%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
6th
Created
1.7
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
9th
Created
1.2
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
8th
Created
0.5
20th