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DET logo

Detroit Lions

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-12-1
nfelo Rating
131431st
Point Diff / Game
-5.124th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08323rd

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI@
T
27-27
0
-2.5
L
20
2
LAC logo
LAC
W
13-10
+3
+1
W
3
3
PHI logo
PHI@
W
27-24
+3
+4
W
20
4
KC logo
KC
L
30-34
-4
+7
W
2
5BYE WEEK
6
GB logo
GB@
L
22-23
-1
+3.5
W
1
7
MIN logo
MIN
L
30-42
-12
+2.5
L
0
8
NYG logo
NYG
W
31-26
+5
-6.5
L
-24
9
OAK logo
OAK@
L
24-31
-7
+2.5
L
-165
10
CHI logo
CHI@
L
13-20
-7
+6.5
L
23
11
DAL logo
DAL
L
27-35
-8
+7
L
14
12
WAS logo
WAS@
L
16-19
-3
-4
L
-42
13
CHI logo
CHI
L
20-24
-4
+5.5
W
11
14
MIN logo
MIN@
L
07-20
-13
+12.5
L
-7
15
TB logo
TB
L
17-38
-21
+6
L
-13
16
DEN logo
DEN@
L
17-27
-10
+8
L
7
17
GB logo
GB
L
20-23
-3
+13
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.02
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.13
27th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.03
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.15
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
17th
Sack EPA
-4.60
18th
Turnover EPA
-5.73
14th
Point Differential
-5.1
24th
Points For
21.3
18th
Points Against
26.4
26th
Total Yards
346.8
16th
Passing Yards
215.9
12th
Rushing Yards
103.1
21st
Total Yards Allowed
400.6
31st
Passing Allowed
231.4
27th
Rushing Allowed
116.1
21st

Conversions For

3rd Down
41%
14th
4th Down
38%
24th
Red Zone
60%
12th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
28th
4th Down
47%
14th
Red Zone
58%
18th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
20th
Created
1.1
23rd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
21st
Created
0.4
30th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
10th
Created
0.7
7th