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  4. 2025
DET logo

Detroit Lions

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-5
nfelo Rating
16313rd
Point Diff / Game
+6.95th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1177th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB@
L
13-27
-14
+1.5
L
-33
2
CHI logo
CHI
W
52-21
+31
-6.5
W
28
3
BAL logo
BAL@
W
38-30
+8
+4.5
W
11
4
CLE logo
CLE
W
34-10
+24
-10
W
3
5
CIN logo
CIN@
W
37-24
+13
-10
W
24
6
KC logo
KC@
L
17-30
-13
+2.5
L
-21
7
TB logo
TB
W
24-09
+15
-6
W
-0
8BYE WEEK
9
MIN logo
MIN
L
24-27
-3
-9.5
L
-12
10
WAS logo
WAS@
W
44-22
+22
-8
W
53
11
PHI logo
PHI@
L
09-16
-7
+2.5
L
-32
12
NYG logo
NYG
W
34-27
+7
-14
L
-9
13
GB logo
GB
L
24-31
-7
-2.5
L
-11
14
DAL logo
DAL
W
44-30
+14
-3.5
W
10
15
LAR logo
LAR@
12/14
-
+5.5
-
-
16
PIT logo
PIT
12/21
-
-
-
17
MIN logo
MIN@
12/25
-
-
-
18
CHI logo
CHI@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.12
6th
EPA / Pass
+0.19
4th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
9th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
13th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
13th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
4th
Sack EPA
-4.06
20th
Turnover EPA
-2.50
31st
Point Differential
+6.9
5th
Points For
30.3
1st
Points Against
23.4
18th
Total Yards
378.8
3rd
Passing Yards
164.1
23rd
Rushing Yards
136.0
5th
Total Yards Allowed
324.1
15th
Passing Allowed
188.9
16th
Rushing Allowed
102.7
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
39%
18th
4th Down
52%
19th
Red Zone
67%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
12th
4th Down
60%
20th
Red Zone
61%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.6
1st
Created
1.2
13th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
3rd
Created
0.8
10th

Fumbles

Lost
0.2
3rd
Created
0.4
21st