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  4. 2009
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-6
nfelo Rating
16534th
Point Diff / Game
+9.33rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1753rd

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI
W
21-15
+6
-5
W
30
2
CIN logo
CIN
L
24-31
-7
-8
L
-14
3
LAR logo
LAR@
W
36-17
+19
-6.5
W
33
4
MIN logo
MIN@
L
23-30
-7
+5
L
-12
5BYE WEEK
6
DET logo
DET
W
26-00
+26
-14
W
10
7
CLE logo
CLE@
W
31-03
+28
-9
W
58
8
MIN logo
MIN
L
26-38
-12
-3.5
L
-7
9
TB logo
TB@
L
28-38
-10
-10
L
-21
10
DAL logo
DAL
W
17-07
+10
+3
W
6
11
SF logo
SF
W
30-24
+6
-6
P
-5
12
DET logo
DET@
W
34-12
+22
-11.5
W
26
13
BAL logo
BAL
W
27-14
+13
-4
W
12
14
CHI logo
CHI@
W
21-14
+7
-4
W
-8
15
PIT logo
PIT@
L
36-37
-1
+2.5
W
11
16
SEA logo
SEA
W
48-10
+38
-13.5
W
5
17
ARI logo
ARI@
W
33-07
+26
+3
W
19
18
ARI logo
ARI@
L
45-51
-6
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.09
4th
EPA / Pass
+0.19
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
5th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.09
8th
EPA / Rush
-0.18
2nd
Sack EPA
-4.94
28th
Turnover EPA
-5.33
28th
Point Differential
+9.3
3rd
Points For
29.8
2nd
Points Against
20.5
15th
Total Yards
386.1
3rd
Passing Yards
255.5
1st
Rushing Yards
115.5
16th
Total Yards Allowed
299.1
3rd
Passing Allowed
173.0
10th
Rushing Allowed
87.6
2nd

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
3rd
4th Down
45%
20th
Red Zone
58%
7th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
9th
4th Down
40%
4th
Red Zone
60%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
1st
Created
2.4
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
2nd
Created
1.8
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
11th
Created
0.6
19th