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  4. 2015
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
156111th
Point Diff / Game
+3.111th
Net EPA / Play
+0.06311th

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
W
31-23
+8
-6.5
W
12
2
SEA logo
SEA
W
27-17
+10
-3
W
10
3
KC logo
KC
W
38-28
+10
-5.5
W
17
4
SF logo
SF@
W
17-03
+14
-7.5
W
18
5
LAR logo
LAR
W
24-10
+14
-9
W
-4
6
LAC logo
LAC
W
27-20
+7
-10.5
L
-11
7BYE WEEK
8
DEN logo
DEN@
L
10-29
-19
-2.5
L
-21
9
CAR logo
CAR@
L
29-37
-8
-2.5
L
-9
10
DET logo
DET
L
16-18
-2
-10.5
L
-11
11
MIN logo
MIN@
W
30-13
+17
6
12
CHI logo
CHI
L
13-17
-4
-8
L
-17
13
DET logo
DET@
W
27-23
+4
-2.5
W
3
14
DAL logo
DAL
W
28-07
+21
-6.5
W
11
15
OAK logo
OAK@
W
30-20
+10
-4
W
4
16
ARI logo
ARI@
L
08-38
-30
+6
L
-48
17
MIN logo
MIN
L
13-20
-7
-3
L
-10
18
WAS logo
WAS@
W
35-18
+17
+1.5
W
13
19
ARI logo
ARI@
L
20-26
-6
+7
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.02
10th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.05
8th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
13th
EPA / Pass
-0.06
7th
EPA / Rush
-0.04
28th
Sack EPA
-5.32
29th
Turnover EPA
-5.02
26th
Point Differential
+3.1
11th
Points For
23.5
14th
Points Against
20.4
11th
Total Yards
338.4
22nd
Passing Yards
209.7
16th
Rushing Yards
118.1
9th
Total Yards Allowed
348.4
17th
Passing Allowed
186.8
8th
Rushing Allowed
112.7
19th

Conversions For

3rd Down
34%
27th
4th Down
54%
10th
Red Zone
55%
16th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
8th
4th Down
46%
14th
Red Zone
54%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
5th
Created
1.4
20th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
2nd
Created
1.0
8th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
10th
Created
0.4
28th