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  4. 2016
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-7
nfelo Rating
16126th
Point Diff / Game
+2.68th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0419th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX@
W
27-23
+4
-3.5
W
5
2
MIN logo
MIN@
L
14-17
-3
-2
L
-4
3
DET logo
DET
W
34-27
+7
-6.5
W
16
4BYE WEEK
5
NYG logo
NYG
W
23-16
+7
-7
P
-14
6
DAL logo
DAL
L
16-30
-14
-5
L
-9
7
CHI logo
CHI
W
26-10
+16
-7.5
W
17
8
ATL logo
ATL@
L
32-33
-1
+3
W
13
9
IND logo
IND
L
26-31
-5
-7.5
L
-27
10
TEN logo
TEN@
L
25-47
-22
-3
L
-15
11
WAS logo
WAS@
L
24-42
-18
+3
L
-22
12
PHI logo
PHI@
W
27-13
+14
+4
W
19
13
HOU logo
HOU
W
21-13
+8
-7
W
-5
14
SEA logo
SEA
W
38-10
+28
+3
W
14
15
CHI logo
CHI@
W
30-27
+3
-4.5
L
-18
16
MIN logo
MIN
W
38-25
+13
-6.5
W
39
17
DET logo
DET@
W
31-24
+7
-3.5
W
12
18
NYG logo
NYG
W
38-13
+25
-5
W
11
19
DAL logo
DAL@
W
34-31
+3
+5
W
3
20
ATL logo
ATL@
L
21-44
-23
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.20
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.03
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.16
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
14th
Sack EPA
-4.02
20th
Turnover EPA
-3.57
28th
Point Differential
+2.6
8th
Points For
27.6
4th
Points Against
25.1
25th
Total Yards
373.3
7th
Passing Yards
239.7
6th
Rushing Yards
103.5
22nd
Total Yards Allowed
374.5
25th
Passing Allowed
257.7
29th
Rushing Allowed
96.1
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
46%
3rd
4th Down
48%
19th
Red Zone
64%
7th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
26th
4th Down
68%
24th
Red Zone
61%
27th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
7th
Created
1.5
14th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
7th
Created
1.0
8th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
12th
Created
0.5
22nd