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  4. 2021
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2021 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
15999th
Point Diff / Game
+4.29th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0888th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NO logo
NO@
L
03-38
-35
-3.5
L
-31
2
DET logo
DET
W
35-17
+18
-11.5
W
8
3
SF logo
SF@
W
30-28
+2
+3
W
7
4
PIT logo
PIT
W
27-17
+10
-6
W
-0
5
CIN logo
CIN@
W
25-22
+3
-2.5
W
-1
6
CHI logo
CHI@
W
24-14
+10
-5.5
W
4
7
WAS logo
WAS
W
24-10
+14
-9
W
6
8
ARI logo
ARI@
W
24-21
+3
+6.5
W
-123
9
KC logo
KC@
L
07-13
-6
+7
W
134
10
SEA logo
SEA
W
17-00
+17
-3
W
5
11
MIN logo
MIN@
L
31-34
-3
-1
L
-4
12
LAR logo
LAR
W
36-28
+8
+1
W
7
13BYE WEEK
14
CHI logo
CHI
W
45-30
+15
-11.5
W
7
15
BAL logo
BAL@
W
31-30
+1
-9
L
-7
16
CLE logo
CLE
W
24-22
+2
-7.5
L
-13
17
MIN logo
MIN
W
37-10
+27
-7
W
14
18
DET logo
DET@
L
30-37
-7
-4
L
-59
19BYE WEEK
20
SF logo
SF
L
10-13
-3
-5.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.10
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.18
3rd
EPA / Rush
+0.03
7th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.05
7th
EPA / Rush
+0.05
32nd
Sack EPA
-3.52
10th
Turnover EPA
-2.43
32nd
Point Differential
+4.2
9th
Points For
25.6
10th
Points Against
21.3
10th
Total Yards
360.0
12th
Passing Yards
222.3
8th
Rushing Yards
109.4
19th
Total Yards Allowed
322.1
8th
Passing Allowed
204.6
15th
Rushing Allowed
109.1
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
9th
4th Down
59%
9th
Red Zone
58%
18th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
24th
4th Down
44%
7th
Red Zone
62%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
2nd
Created
1.5
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
1st
Created
1.1
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.4
16th