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  4. 2023
GB logo

Green Bay Packers

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-9
nfelo Rating
15769th
Point Diff / Game
+2.49th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0549th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CHI logo
CHI@
W
38-20
+18
+1
W
16
2
ATL logo
ATL@
L
24-25
-1
+3
W
3
3
NO logo
NO
W
18-17
+1
+1.5
W
-5
4
DET logo
DET
L
20-34
-14
+2
L
-53
5
OAK logo
OAK@
L
13-17
-4
+1
L
-13
6BYE WEEK
7
DEN logo
DEN@
L
17-19
-2
+1
L
-16
8
MIN logo
MIN
L
10-24
-14
-13
9
LAR logo
LAR
W
20-03
+17
-4
W
11
10
PIT logo
PIT@
L
19-23
-4
+3
L
2
11
LAC logo
LAC
W
23-20
+3
+3
W
9
12
DET logo
DET@
W
29-22
+7
+8.5
W
22
13
KC logo
KC
W
27-19
+8
+6
W
18
14
NYG logo
NYG@
L
22-24
-2
-5.5
L
-11
15
TB logo
TB
L
20-34
-14
-4
L
-7
16
CAR logo
CAR@
W
33-30
+3
-3.5
L
-1
17
MIN logo
MIN@
W
33-10
+23
22
18
CHI logo
CHI
W
17-09
+8
-2.5
W
14
19
DAL logo
DAL@
W
48-32
+16
+7
W
51
20
SF logo
SF@
L
21-24
-3
+10.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.17
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.06
14th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
25th
EPA / Pass
+0.03
23rd
EPA / Rush
-0.01
26th
Sack EPA
-2.44
2nd
Turnover EPA
-3.48
30th
Point Differential
+2.4
9th
Points For
23.8
8th
Points Against
21.4
13th
Total Yards
348.6
10th
Passing Yards
169.3
25th
Rushing Yards
114.9
14th
Total Yards Allowed
346.0
22nd
Passing Allowed
210.1
26th
Rushing Allowed
127.6
28th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
3rd
4th Down
50%
16th
Red Zone
53%
17th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
28th
4th Down
44%
5th
Red Zone
54%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
6th
Created
1.1
24th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
14th
Created
0.5
28th

Fumbles

Lost
0.3
5th
Created
0.6
12th