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Indianapolis Colts

AFC South

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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nfelo History

Current nfelo
1459
Week 22, 2025
Best nfelo
1665
Week 8, 2009
Worst nfelo
1295
Week 16, 2017

Season History

2025
8-9
PF: 27.4 |PA: 24.2
nfelo: 1392
Rank #25
2024
8-9
PF: 22.2 |PA: 25.1
nfelo: 1457
Rank #21
2023
9-8
PF: 23.3 |PA: 24.4
nfelo: 1432
Rank #23
2022
4-12-1
PF: 17.0 |PA: 25.1
nfelo: 1274
Rank #31
2021
9-8
PF: 26.5 |PA: 21.5
nfelo: 1590
Rank #10
2020
11-6
PF: 27.9 |PA: 22.9
nfelo: 1597
Rank #9
2019
7-9
PF: 22.6 |PA: 23.3
nfelo: 1505
Rank #13
2018
11-7
PF: 25.9 |PA: 21.2
nfelo: 1595
Rank #8
2017
4-12
PF: 16.4 |PA: 25.3
nfelo: 1320
Rank #29
2016
8-8
PF: 25.7 |PA: 24.5
nfelo: 1511
Rank #16
2015
8-8
PF: 20.8 |PA: 25.5
nfelo: 1381
Rank #27
2014
13-6
PF: 27.1 |PA: 23.0
nfelo: 1613
Rank #5
2013
12-6
PF: 25.4 |PA: 23.5
nfelo: 1527
Rank #14
2012
11-6
PF: 21.5 |PA: 24.2
nfelo: 1441
Rank #22
2011
2-14
PF: 15.2 |PA: 26.9
nfelo: 1374
Rank #29
2010
10-7
PF: 26.5 |PA: 23.8
nfelo: 1579
Rank #10
2009
16-3
PF: 25.4 |PA: 18.8
nfelo: 1630
Rank #7