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  4. 2009
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
16-3
nfelo Rating
16307th
Point Diff / Game
+6.67th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1128th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX
W
14-12
+2
-6.5
L
-24
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
27-23
+4
-3
W
13
3
ARI logo
ARI@
W
31-10
+21
+3
W
20
4
SEA logo
SEA
W
34-17
+17
-10.5
W
8
5
TEN logo
TEN@
W
31-09
+22
-4
W
41
6BYE WEEK
7
LAR logo
LAR@
W
42-06
+36
-14
W
8
8
SF logo
SF
W
18-14
+4
-13
L
-33
9
HOU logo
HOU
W
20-17
+3
-7.5
L
-11
10
NE logo
NE
W
35-34
+1
-2
L
-3
11
BAL logo
BAL@
W
17-15
+2
-2
P
29
12
HOU logo
HOU@
W
35-27
+8
-3
W
1
13
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-17
+10
-6
W
-2
14
DEN logo
DEN
W
28-16
+12
-6.5
W
-12
15
JAX logo
JAX@
W
35-31
+4
-3.5
W
-8
16
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
15-29
-14
-3
L
-64
17
BUF logo
BUF@
L
07-30
-23
+8
L
-156
18BYE WEEK
19
BAL logo
BAL
W
20-03
+17
-6.5
W
95
20
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
30-17
+13
-8.5
W
100
21
NO logo
NO
L
17-31
-14
-4.5
L
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.10
3rd
EPA / Pass
+0.24
4th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
27th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
17th
Sack EPA
-1.66
2nd
Turnover EPA
-6.08
26th
Point Differential
+6.6
7th
Points For
25.4
7th
Points Against
18.8
7th
Total Yards
367.2
8th
Passing Yards
143.9
28th
Rushing Yards
80.8
32nd
Total Yards Allowed
338.1
18th
Passing Allowed
182.2
17th
Rushing Allowed
118.3
20th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
2nd
4th Down
50%
13th
Red Zone
63%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
44%
30th
4th Down
27%
2nd
Red Zone
49%
13th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.5
10th
Created
1.6
18th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
21st
Created
1.0
15th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
1st
Created
0.6
22nd