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  4. 2022
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12-1
nfelo Rating
127131st
Point Diff / Game
-8.132nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.13630th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
T
20-20
0
-7
L
-2
2
JAX logo
JAX@
L
00-24
-24
-3
L
-42
3
KC logo
KC
W
20-17
+3
+5
W
10
4
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-24
-7
-4
L
-3
5
DEN logo
DEN@
W
12-09
+3
+3
W
-1
6
JAX logo
JAX
W
34-27
+7
-2
W
23
7
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-19
-9
+2.5
L
-126
8
WAS logo
WAS
L
16-17
-1
-3
L
5
9
NE logo
NE@
L
03-26
-23
+5
L
100
10
OAK logo
OAK@
W
25-20
+5
+4
W
15
11
PHI logo
PHI
L
16-17
-1
+6.5
W
-5
12
PIT logo
PIT
L
17-24
-7
-2.5
L
-38
13
DAL logo
DAL@
L
19-54
-35
+11
L
-32
14BYE WEEK
15
MIN logo
MIN@
L
36-39
-3
+3.5
W
30
16
LAC logo
LAC
L
03-20
-17
+3.5
L
-47
17
NYG logo
NYG@
L
10-38
-28
+5.5
L
-129
18
HOU logo
HOU
L
31-32
-1
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.18
32nd
EPA / Pass
-0.20
30th
EPA / Rush
-0.15
30th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.04
10th
EPA / Pass
+0.00
16th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
8th
Sack EPA
-6.30
31st
Turnover EPA
-10.01
1st
Point Differential
-8.1
32nd
Points For
17.0
30th
Points Against
25.1
28th
Total Yards
311.8
27th
Passing Yards
179.1
18th
Rushing Yards
109.9
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
334.5
15th
Passing Allowed
186.2
18th
Rushing Allowed
124.1
20th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
29th
4th Down
46%
23rd
Red Zone
46%
29th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
9th
4th Down
52%
17th
Red Zone
68%
32nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.1
32nd
Created
1.2
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
32nd
Created
0.6
24th

Fumbles

Lost
0.9
32nd
Created
0.6
10th