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  4. 2025
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-5
nfelo Rating
154113th
Point Diff / Game
+7.04th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1474th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
W
33-08
+25
-1.5
W
47
2
DEN logo
DEN
W
29-28
+1
+2.5
W
13
3
TEN logo
TEN@
W
41-20
+21
-6
W
31
4
LAR logo
LAR@
L
20-27
-7
+3.5
L
-10
5
OAK logo
OAK
W
40-06
+34
-7
W
16
6
ARI logo
ARI
W
31-27
+4
-9
L
-4
7
LAC logo
LAC@
W
38-24
+14
+2.5
W
20
8
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-14
+24
-15.5
W
33
9
PIT logo
PIT@
L
20-27
-7
-3
L
-15
10
ATL logo
ATL
W
31-25
+6
-6.5
L
6
11BYE WEEK
12
KC logo
KC@
L
20-23
-3
+4.5
W
3
13
HOU logo
HOU
L
16-20
-4
-3
L
-8
14
JAX logo
JAX@
L
19-36
-17
-2.5
L
-22
15
SEA logo
SEA@
12/14
-
+13.5
-
-
16
SF logo
SF
12/22
-
-
-
17
JAX logo
JAX
12/28
-
-
-
18
HOU logo
HOU@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.15
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.12
10th
EPA / Rush
+0.12
1st
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
14th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
8th
Sack EPA
-3.48
13th
Turnover EPA
-4.69
22nd
Point Differential
+7.0
4th
Points For
28.9
5th
Points Against
21.9
13th
Total Yards
368.8
6th
Passing Yards
189.2
13th
Rushing Yards
131.1
6th
Total Yards Allowed
345.4
23rd
Passing Allowed
211.9
31st
Rushing Allowed
98.6
6th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
10th
4th Down
71%
3rd
Red Zone
64%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
28th
4th Down
50%
9th
Red Zone
55%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
11th
Created
1.5
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
14th
Created
0.9
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
0.5
13th