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  4. 2025
IND logo

Indianapolis Colts

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
8-9
nfelo Rating
139225th
Point Diff / Game
+3.29th
Net EPA / Play
+0.0718th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
W
33-08
+25
-1.5
W
47
2
DEN logo
DEN
W
29-28
+1
+2.5
W
13
3
TEN logo
TEN@
W
41-20
+21
-6
W
31
4
LAR logo
LAR@
L
20-27
-7
+3.5
L
-10
5
OAK logo
OAK
W
40-06
+34
-7
W
16
6
ARI logo
ARI
W
31-27
+4
-9
L
-4
7
LAC logo
LAC@
W
38-24
+14
+2.5
W
20
8
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-14
+24
-15.5
W
33
9
PIT logo
PIT@
L
20-27
-7
-3
L
-15
10
ATL logo
ATL
W
31-25
+6
-6.5
L
6
11BYE WEEK
12
KC logo
KC@
L
20-23
-3
+4.5
W
3
13
HOU logo
HOU
L
16-20
-4
-3
L
-8
14
JAX logo
JAX@
L
19-36
-17
-2.5
L
-8
15
SEA logo
SEA@
L
16-18
-2
+13.5
W
2
16
SF logo
SF
L
27-48
-21
+4.5
L
-64
17
JAX logo
JAX
L
17-23
-6
+4
L
-101
18
HOU logo
HOU@
L
30-38
-8
+9.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
12th
EPA / Rush
+0.08
2nd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
10th
Sack EPA
-3.59
13th
Turnover EPA
-5.91
10th
Point Differential
+3.2
9th
Points For
27.4
7th
Points Against
24.2
21st
Total Yards
346.1
8th
Passing Yards
190.9
12th
Rushing Yards
118.2
17th
Total Yards Allowed
350.2
23rd
Passing Allowed
209.6
28th
Rushing Allowed
101.9
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
43%
7th
4th Down
67%
4th
Red Zone
65%
6th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
24th
4th Down
54%
14th
Red Zone
54%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
19th
Created
1.3
9th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
26th
Created
0.8
11th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
18th
Created
0.5
17th