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  4. 2009
JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
144221st
Point Diff / Game
-5.625th
Net EPA / Play
-0.09325th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
IND logo
IND@
L
12-14
-2
+6.5
W
18
2
ARI logo
ARI
L
17-31
-14
-3
L
-11
3
HOU logo
HOU@
W
31-24
+7
+4
W
15
4
TEN logo
TEN
W
37-17
+20
+3
W
25
5
SEA logo
SEA@
L
00-41
-41
+1.5
L
-37
6
LAR logo
LAR
W
23-20
+3
-9.5
L
-31
7BYE WEEK
8
TEN logo
TEN@
L
13-30
-17
+3
L
-23
9
KC logo
KC
W
24-21
+3
-7
L
1
10
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
24-22
+2
+6.5
W
31
11
BUF logo
BUF
W
18-15
+3
-8.5
L
-6
12
SF logo
SF@
L
03-20
-17
+3
L
-9
13
HOU logo
HOU
W
23-18
+5
+2
W
13
14
MIA logo
MIA
L
10-14
-4
-1.5
L
-14
15
IND logo
IND
L
31-35
-4
+3.5
L
20
16
NE logo
NE@
L
07-35
-28
+9.5
L
-12
17
CLE logo
CLE@
L
17-23
-6
+2
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.00
16th
EPA / Pass
-0.05
20th
EPA / Rush
+0.05
1st
Def. EPA / Play
+0.09
32nd
EPA / Pass
+0.24
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.11
10th
Sack EPA
-5.13
30th
Turnover EPA
-6.67
15th
Point Differential
-5.6
25th
Points For
18.1
24th
Points Against
23.8
24th
Total Yards
336.9
18th
Passing Yards
196.7
13th
Rushing Yards
126.9
9th
Total Yards Allowed
352.3
22nd
Passing Allowed
124.8
1st
Rushing Allowed
116.3
18th

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
4th
4th Down
57%
10th
Red Zone
50%
18th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
45%
31st
4th Down
71%
31st
Red Zone
56%
24th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
7th
Created
1.6
19th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
4th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
22nd
Created
0.6
20th