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  4. 2012
JAX logo

Jacksonville Jaguars

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
2-14
nfelo Rating
130631st
Point Diff / Game
-11.831st
Net EPA / Play
-0.18531st

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIN logo
MIN@
L
23-26
-3
+3.5
W
11
2
HOU logo
HOU
L
07-27
-20
+6.5
L
-13
3
IND logo
IND@
W
22-17
+5
+3
W
12
4
CIN logo
CIN
L
10-27
-17
-1
L
-11
5
CHI logo
CHI
L
03-41
-38
+6.5
L
-42
6BYE WEEK
7
OAK logo
OAK@
L
23-26
-3
+6
W
7
8
GB logo
GB@
L
15-24
-9
+16
W
15
9
DET logo
DET
L
14-31
-17
+6
L
-27
10
IND logo
IND
L
10-27
-17
+3
L
-32
11
HOU logo
HOU@
L
37-43
-6
+15.5
W
49
12
TEN logo
TEN
W
24-19
+5
+3.5
W
3
13
BUF logo
BUF@
L
18-34
-16
+6
L
-13
14
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
10-17
-7
+3
L
-45
15
MIA logo
MIA@
L
03-24
-21
+7.5
L
-9
16
NE logo
NE
L
16-23
-7
+14
W
10
17
TEN logo
TEN@
L
20-38
-18
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.11
29th
EPA / Pass
-0.15
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
27th
Sack EPA
-4.69
27th
Turnover EPA
-6.89
10th
Point Differential
-11.8
31st
Points For
15.9
30th
Points Against
27.8
29th
Total Yards
299.6
29th
Passing Yards
213.9
12th
Rushing Yards
85.7
30th
Total Yards Allowed
380.6
30th
Passing Allowed
185.6
11th
Rushing Allowed
141.0
30th

Conversions For

3rd Down
30%
31st
4th Down
31%
30th
Red Zone
43%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
28th
4th Down
44%
13th
Red Zone
53%
15th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
22nd
Created
1.4
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
22nd
Created
0.8
20th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
16th
Created
0.6
16th