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Jacksonville Jaguars

2013 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
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  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-12
nfelo Rating
127232nd
Point Diff / Game
-12.632nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.20132nd

2013 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
L
02-28
-26
+3.5
L
-31
2
OAK logo
OAK@
L
09-19
-10
+4
L
-1
3
SEA logo
SEA@
L
17-45
-28
+19.5
L
-39
4
IND logo
IND
L
03-37
-34
+9
L
-41
5
LAR logo
LAR@
L
20-34
-14
+11
L
41
6
DEN logo
DEN@
L
19-35
-16
+27
W
9
7
LAC logo
LAC
L
06-24
-18
+7
L
-18
8
SF logo
SF
L
10-42
-32
+16
L
-11
9BYE WEEK
10
TEN logo
TEN@
W
29-27
+2
+11.5
W
1
11
ARI logo
ARI
L
14-27
-13
+9
L
-30
12
HOU logo
HOU@
W
13-06
+7
+10.5
W
17
13
CLE logo
CLE@
W
32-28
+4
+7
W
28
14
HOU logo
HOU
W
27-20
+7
+3
W
38
15
BUF logo
BUF
L
20-27
-7
+4
L
-16
16
TEN logo
TEN
L
16-20
-4
+4
P
3
17
IND logo
IND@
L
10-30
-20
+11.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.13
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.18
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.18
30th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.07
27th
EPA / Pass
+0.16
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.03
22nd
Sack EPA
-4.47
21st
Turnover EPA
-7.96
10th
Point Differential
-12.6
32nd
Points For
15.4
32nd
Points Against
28.1
28th
Total Yards
293.8
31st
Passing Yards
200.8
20th
Rushing Yards
78.8
31st
Total Yards Allowed
379.4
26th
Passing Allowed
218.1
19th
Rushing Allowed
131.8
29th

Conversions For

3rd Down
31%
32nd
4th Down
43%
20th
Red Zone
44%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
42%
26th
4th Down
75%
30th
Red Zone
60%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.7
19th
Created
1.3
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
27th
Created
0.7
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
4th
Created
0.6
16th