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Jacksonville Jaguars

2015 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-11
nfelo Rating
141224th
Point Diff / Game
-4.523rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.07021st

2015 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CAR logo
CAR
L
09-20
-11
+3
L
-12
2
MIA logo
MIA
W
23-20
+3
+6
W
21
3
NE logo
NE@
L
17-51
-34
+14
L
-7
4
IND logo
IND@
L
13-16
-3
+4
W
25
5
TB logo
TB@
L
31-38
-7
+1
L
4
6
HOU logo
HOU
L
20-31
-11
-3
L
-8
7
BUF logo
BUF
W
34-31
+3
+3.5
W
5
8BYE WEEK
9
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
23-28
-5
+7.5
W
7
10
BAL logo
BAL@
W
22-20
+2
+4.5
W
36
11
TEN logo
TEN
W
19-13
+6
-3
W
5
12
LAC logo
LAC
L
25-31
-6
-5
L
-3
13
TEN logo
TEN@
L
39-42
-3
+3
P
-9
14
IND logo
IND
W
51-16
+35
-1
W
18
15
ATL logo
ATL
L
17-23
-6
-2
L
-12
16
NO logo
NO@
L
27-38
-11
+2.5
L
-2
17
HOU logo
HOU@
L
06-30
-24
+6
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.06
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.00
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.18
30th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
18th
EPA / Pass
+0.13
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
11th
Sack EPA
-5.69
30th
Turnover EPA
-8.62
4th
Point Differential
-4.5
23rd
Points For
23.5
14th
Points Against
28.0
31st
Total Yards
348.9
17th
Passing Yards
239.8
6th
Rushing Yards
92.1
27th
Total Yards Allowed
375.3
24th
Passing Allowed
268.3
32nd
Rushing Allowed
106.9
15th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
25th
4th Down
53%
13th
Red Zone
54%
18th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
46%
31st
4th Down
50%
17th
Red Zone
61%
25th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
24th
Created
1.1
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.1
26th
Created
0.6
26th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
15th
Created
0.6
15th