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Jacksonville Jaguars

2016 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
3-13
nfelo Rating
140726th
Point Diff / Game
-5.127th
Net EPA / Play
-0.08227th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
GB logo
GB
L
23-27
-4
+3.5
L
-0
2
LAC logo
LAC@
L
14-38
-24
+3
L
-7
3
BAL logo
BAL
L
17-19
-2
+2
P
-7
4
IND logo
IND
W
30-27
+3
+1
W
26
5BYE WEEK
6
CHI logo
CHI@
W
17-16
+1
+2.5
W
-3
7
OAK logo
OAK
L
16-33
-17
-2
L
-14
8
TEN logo
TEN@
L
22-36
-14
+3
L
-0
9
KC logo
KC@
L
14-19
-5
+7
W
7
10
HOU logo
HOU
L
21-24
-3
-3
L
-1
11
DET logo
DET@
L
19-26
-7
+5.5
L
-5
12
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-28
-7
+8.5
W
9
13
DEN logo
DEN
L
10-20
-10
+3.5
L
-13
14
MIN logo
MIN
L
16-25
-9
+3.5
L
-17
15
HOU logo
HOU@
L
20-21
-1
+3.5
W
-8
16
TEN logo
TEN
W
38-17
+21
+4.5
W
18
17
IND logo
IND@
L
20-24
-4
+5.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
24th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
28th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
25th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
21st
EPA / Pass
-0.00
9th
EPA / Rush
-0.09
11th
Sack EPA
-3.95
18th
Turnover EPA
-6.85
10th
Point Differential
-5.1
27th
Points For
19.9
25th
Points Against
25.0
24th
Total Yards
335.2
22nd
Passing Yards
220.5
11th
Rushing Yards
102.1
23rd
Total Yards Allowed
321.8
6th
Passing Allowed
147.8
1st
Rushing Allowed
106.6
18th

Conversions For

3rd Down
35%
29th
4th Down
44%
25th
Red Zone
60%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
9th
4th Down
46%
12th
Red Zone
55%
14th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
25th
Created
0.9
29th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.0
21st
Created
0.4
32nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
27th
Created
0.4
24th