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Jacksonville Jaguars

2017 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-7
nfelo Rating
15409th
Point Diff / Game
+8.23rd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1582nd

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
HOU logo
HOU@
W
29-07
+22
+6
W
12
2
TEN logo
TEN
L
16-37
-21
+1.5
L
-23
3
BAL logo
BAL
W
44-07
+37
+3
W
42
4
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
20-23
-3
-4
L
-13
5
PIT logo
PIT@
W
30-09
+21
+7.5
W
19
6
LAR logo
LAR
L
17-27
-10
-1
L
-13
7
IND logo
IND@
W
27-00
+27
-3
W
33
8BYE WEEK
9
CIN logo
CIN
W
23-07
+16
-5.5
W
31
10
LAC logo
LAC
W
20-17
+3
-5
L
-4
11
CLE logo
CLE@
W
19-07
+12
-7
W
1
12
ARI logo
ARI@
L
24-27
-3
-6
L
-5
13
IND logo
IND
W
30-10
+20
-10
W
30
14
SEA logo
SEA
W
30-24
+6
-2.5
W
26
15
HOU logo
HOU
W
45-07
+38
-10.5
W
20
16
SF logo
SF@
L
33-44
-11
-4
L
-10
17
TEN logo
TEN@
L
10-15
-5
+2.5
L
-49
18
BUF logo
BUF
W
10-03
+7
-8.5
L
2
19
PIT logo
PIT@
W
45-42
+3
+7
W
13
20
NE logo
NE@
L
20-24
-4
+7.5
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.00
9th
EPA / Pass
+0.06
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
6th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.16
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.22
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.10
10th
Sack EPA
-2.69
4th
Turnover EPA
-4.71
24th
Point Differential
+8.2
3rd
Points For
25.9
6th
Points Against
17.7
3rd
Total Yards
360.2
9th
Passing Yards
160.6
28th
Rushing Yards
141.2
1st
Total Yards Allowed
301.7
3rd
Passing Allowed
177.8
6th
Rushing Allowed
111.5
17th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
19th
4th Down
75%
2nd
Red Zone
69%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
4th
4th Down
57%
24th
Red Zone
45%
3rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
13th
Created
2.0
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.7
9th
Created
1.3
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
20th
Created
0.7
6th