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  4. 2012
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2012 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
2-14
nfelo Rating
129632nd
Point Diff / Game
-13.432nd
Net EPA / Play
-0.23732nd

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL
L
24-40
-16
+2.5
L
-10
2
BUF logo
BUF@
L
17-35
-18
+3
L
-9
3
NO logo
NO@
W
27-24
+3
+9
W
11
4
LAC logo
LAC
L
20-37
-17
+2.5
L
-27
5
BAL logo
BAL
L
06-09
-3
+6
W
2
6
TB logo
TB@
L
10-38
-28
+5
L
-31
7BYE WEEK
8
OAK logo
OAK
L
16-26
-10
-1
L
-8
9
LAC logo
LAC@
L
13-31
-18
+7
L
-10
10
PIT logo
PIT@
L
13-16
-3
+12.5
W
5
11
CIN logo
CIN
L
06-28
-22
+3
L
-55
12
DEN logo
DEN
L
09-17
-8
+10.5
W
1
13
CAR logo
CAR
W
27-21
+6
+5.5
W
21
14
CLE logo
CLE@
L
07-30
-23
+7
L
-18
15
OAK logo
OAK@
L
00-15
-15
+4.5
L
-31
16
IND logo
IND
L
13-20
-7
+5
L
-22
17
DEN logo
DEN@
L
03-38
-35
+17
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.13
31st
EPA / Pass
-0.26
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.05
16th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.11
31st
EPA / Pass
+0.22
32nd
EPA / Rush
-0.03
22nd
Sack EPA
-4.06
21st
Turnover EPA
-9.62
4th
Point Differential
-13.4
32nd
Points For
13.2
32nd
Points Against
26.6
25th
Total Yards
319.3
24th
Passing Yards
150.6
31st
Rushing Yards
149.7
5th
Total Yards Allowed
356.5
19th
Passing Allowed
165.5
4th
Rushing Allowed
135.7
27th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
27th
4th Down
47%
19th
Red Zone
26%
32nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
17th
4th Down
75%
30th
Red Zone
53%
16th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
2.3
32nd
Created
0.9
32nd

Interceptions

Thrown
1.3
31st
Created
0.4
31st

Fumbles

Lost
1.0
28th
Created
0.4
26th