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  4. 2019
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2019 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
17143rd
Point Diff / Game
+9.74th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1804th

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
JAX logo
JAX@
W
40-26
+14
-3.5
W
35
2
OAK logo
OAK@
W
28-10
+18
-7
W
21
3
BAL logo
BAL
W
33-28
+5
-4.5
W
9
4
DET logo
DET@
W
34-30
+4
-7
L
-1
5
IND logo
IND
L
13-19
-6
-11
L
-20
6
HOU logo
HOU
L
24-31
-7
-3.5
L
-42
7
DEN logo
DEN@
W
30-06
+24
-3
W
-125
8
GB logo
GB
L
24-31
-7
+5.5
L
-7
9
MIN logo
MIN
W
26-23
+3
+5.5
W
130
10
TEN logo
TEN@
L
32-35
-3
-5.5
L
5
11
LAC logo
LAC@
W
24-17
+7
-6
W
7
12BYE WEEK
13
OAK logo
OAK
W
40-09
+31
-11
W
25
14
NE logo
NE@
W
23-16
+7
+3
W
14
15
DEN logo
DEN
W
23-03
+20
-9.5
W
18
16
CHI logo
CHI@
W
26-03
+23
-7
W
43
17
LAC logo
LAC
W
31-21
+10
-10
P
-23
18BYE WEEK
19
HOU logo
HOU
W
51-31
+20
-10
W
14
20
TEN logo
TEN
W
35-24
+11
-7
W
15
21
SF logo
SF
W
31-20
+11
-1.5
W
-52

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.15
2nd
EPA / Pass
+0.24
2nd
EPA / Rush
-0.01
7th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.03
16th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
9th
EPA / Rush
+0.04
30th
Sack EPA
-2.64
2nd
Turnover EPA
-4.19
29th
Point Differential
+9.7
4th
Points For
29.9
2nd
Points Against
20.2
10th
Total Yards
384.4
4th
Passing Yards
237.3
5th
Rushing Yards
101.5
22nd
Total Yards Allowed
352.0
17th
Passing Allowed
204.3
15th
Rushing Allowed
124.9
25th

Conversions For

3rd Down
47%
3rd
4th Down
64%
3rd
Red Zone
60%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
37%
10th
4th Down
48%
17th
Red Zone
53%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.9
3rd
Created
1.4
12th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
3rd
Created
0.9
4th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
14th
Created
0.5
24th