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  4. 2022
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2022 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
17-3
nfelo Rating
16425th
Point Diff / Game
+7.05th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1344th

2022 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ARI logo
ARI@
W
44-21
+23
-6.5
W
56
2
LAC logo
LAC
W
27-24
+3
-4
L
-13
3
IND logo
IND@
L
17-20
-3
-5
L
-16
4
TB logo
TB@
W
41-31
+10
+2
W
8
5
OAK logo
OAK
W
30-29
+1
-7
L
-5
6
BUF logo
BUF
L
20-24
-4
+2.5
L
-10
7
SF logo
SF@
W
44-23
+21
35
8BYE WEEK
9
TEN logo
TEN
W
20-17
+3
-14
L
-5
10
JAX logo
JAX
W
27-17
+10
-9.5
W
3
11
LAC logo
LAC@
W
30-27
+3
-5
L
2
12
LAR logo
LAR
W
26-10
+16
-11
W
-0
13
CIN logo
CIN@
L
24-27
-3
-2.5
L
-9
14
DEN logo
DEN@
W
34-28
+6
-8.5
L
-4
15
HOU logo
HOU@
W
30-24
+6
-14
L
6
16
SEA logo
SEA
W
24-10
+14
-10
W
1
17
DEN logo
DEN
W
27-24
+3
-13
L
-6
18
OAK logo
OAK@
W
31-13
+18
-9
W
10
19BYE WEEK
20
JAX logo
JAX
W
27-20
+7
-10
L
-13
21
CIN logo
CIN
W
23-20
+3
-2
W
-0
22
PHI logo
PHI@
W
38-35
+3
+1
W
-125

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.16
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.27
1st
EPA / Rush
+0.03
6th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
27th
EPA / Pass
-0.01
15th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
22nd
Sack EPA
-2.44
1st
Turnover EPA
-4.24
27th
Point Differential
+7.0
5th
Points For
29.2
1st
Points Against
22.2
18th
Total Yards
404.9
1st
Passing Yards
202.1
12th
Rushing Yards
115.8
20th
Total Yards Allowed
332.9
14th
Passing Allowed
225.2
28th
Rushing Allowed
107.8
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
49%
2nd
4th Down
77%
2nd
Red Zone
71%
2nd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
41%
22nd
4th Down
61%
24th
Red Zone
65%
28th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.0
3rd
Created
1.4
10th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
7th
Created
0.7
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.8
2nd