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  4. 2025
KC logo

Kansas City Chiefs

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-7
nfelo Rating
15927th
Point Diff / Game
+4.810th
Net EPA / Play
+0.07311th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
LAC logo
LAC@
L
21-27
-6
-3
L
-5
2
PHI logo
PHI
L
17-20
-3
+1.5
L
-11
3
NYG logo
NYG@
W
22-09
+13
-6
W
3
4
BAL logo
BAL
W
37-20
+17
+2.5
W
18
5
JAX logo
JAX@
L
28-31
-3
-3.5
L
3
6
DET logo
DET
W
30-17
+13
-2.5
W
29
7
OAK logo
OAK
W
31-00
+31
-13.5
W
36
8
WAS logo
WAS
W
28-07
+21
-10.5
W
7
9
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-28
-7
-2.5
L
-22
10BYE WEEK
11
DEN logo
DEN@
L
19-22
-3
-4
L
-12
12
IND logo
IND
W
23-20
+3
-4.5
L
-6
13
DAL logo
DAL@
L
28-31
-3
-3.5
L
-4
14
HOU logo
HOU
L
10-20
-10
-4.5
L
-34
15
LAC logo
LAC
12/14
-
-4.5
-
-
16
TEN logo
TEN@
12/21
-
-
-
17
DEN logo
DEN
12/25
-
-
-
18
OAK logo
OAK@
01/04
-
-
-

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.11
7th
EPA / Pass
+0.15
8th
EPA / Rush
+0.05
4th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.04
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.03
19th
Sack EPA
-2.44
3rd
Turnover EPA
-3.79
26th
Point Differential
+4.8
10th
Points For
24.2
11th
Points Against
19.4
7th
Total Yards
367.4
7th
Passing Yards
224.0
3rd
Rushing Yards
118.9
17th
Total Yards Allowed
303.8
9th
Passing Allowed
165.7
9th
Rushing Allowed
99.5
7th

Conversions For

3rd Down
40%
13th
4th Down
76%
2nd
Red Zone
62%
10th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
26th
4th Down
28%
1st
Red Zone
54%
10th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
4th
Created
0.8
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
18th
Created
0.5
21st

Fumbles

Lost
0.1
1st
Created
0.2
28th