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  4. 2023
LAC logo

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
5-12
nfelo Rating
140129th
Point Diff / Game
-3.123rd
Net EPA / Play
-0.05223rd

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
L
34-36
-2
-3
L
-6
2
TEN logo
TEN@
L
24-27
-3
-2.5
L
-4
3
MIN logo
MIN@
W
28-24
+4
25
4
OAK logo
OAK
W
24-17
+7
-7
P
-13
5BYE WEEK
6
DAL logo
DAL
L
17-20
-3
+1.5
L
-16
7
KC logo
KC@
L
17-31
-14
+5.5
L
-19
8
CHI logo
CHI
W
30-13
+17
-9.5
W
15
9
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
27-06
+21
-3
W
6
10
DET logo
DET
L
38-41
-3
+2
L
7
11
GB logo
GB@
L
20-23
-3
-3
L
3
12
BAL logo
BAL
L
10-20
-10
+3
L
-30
13
NE logo
NE@
W
06-00
+6
-4.5
W
14
14
DEN logo
DEN
L
07-24
-17
-3
L
-125
15
OAK logo
OAK@
L
21-63
-42
+3
L
-14
16
BUF logo
BUF
L
22-24
-2
+13
W
14
17
DEN logo
DEN@
L
09-16
-7
+3.5
L
-3
18
KC logo
KC
L
12-13
-1
-3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.07
22nd
EPA / Pass
-0.03
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.16
31st
Def. EPA / Play
-0.02
20th
EPA / Pass
+0.04
24th
EPA / Rush
-0.06
15th
Sack EPA
-5.88
28th
Turnover EPA
-5.19
16th
Point Differential
-3.1
23rd
Points For
20.4
21st
Points Against
23.4
23rd
Total Yards
329.3
18th
Passing Yards
183.7
17th
Rushing Yards
96.6
24th
Total Yards Allowed
362.9
28th
Passing Allowed
202.8
21st
Rushing Allowed
113.2
16th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
16th
4th Down
47%
23rd
Red Zone
57%
13th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
15th
4th Down
59%
28th
Red Zone
53%
12th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
17th
Created
1.2
22nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
3rd
Created
0.5
25th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
27th
Created
0.6
8th