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  4. 2025
LAC logo

Los Angeles Chargers

2025 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
11-7
nfelo Rating
145719th
Point Diff / Game
+0.816th
Net EPA / Play
+0.01916th

2025 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
W
27-21
+6
+3
W
18
2
OAK logo
OAK@
W
20-09
+11
-3.5
W
17
3
DEN logo
DEN
W
23-20
+3
-2.5
W
-4
4
NYG logo
NYG@
L
18-21
-3
-6
L
-27
5
WAS logo
WAS
L
10-27
-17
-3
L
-13
6
MIA logo
MIA@
W
29-27
+2
-3.5
L
14
7
IND logo
IND
L
24-38
-14
-2.5
L
-8
8
MIN logo
MIN
W
37-10
+27
-3.5
W
18
9
TEN logo
TEN@
W
27-20
+7
-9.5
L
-4
10
PIT logo
PIT
W
25-10
+15
-3
W
-2
11
JAX logo
JAX@
L
06-35
-29
-3
L
-26
12BYE WEEK
13
OAK logo
OAK
W
31-14
+17
-9.5
W
7
14
PHI logo
PHI
W
22-19
+3
+1.5
W
-7
15
KC logo
KC@
W
16-13
+3
+5.5
W
8
16
DAL logo
DAL@
W
34-17
+17
+1.5
W
34
17
HOU logo
HOU
L
16-20
-4
-1.5
L
-30
18
DEN logo
DEN@
L
03-19
-16
+14.5
L
-64
19
NE logo
NE@
L
03-16
-13
+3.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
26th
EPA / Pass
-0.08
26th
EPA / Rush
-0.02
13th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
8th
EPA / Pass
-0.10
10th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
6th
Sack EPA
-6.08
28th
Turnover EPA
-5.91
11th
Point Differential
+0.8
16th
Points For
20.6
24th
Points Against
19.8
8th
Total Yards
326.9
17th
Passing Yards
190.4
13th
Rushing Yards
119.8
14th
Total Yards Allowed
290.8
6th
Passing Allowed
161.0
7th
Rushing Allowed
107.7
10th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
4th
4th Down
54%
17th
Red Zone
46%
30th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
5th
4th Down
54%
15th
Red Zone
44%
2nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.2
15th
Created
1.3
8th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
23rd
Created
1.1
3rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
17th
Created
0.2
30th