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Miami Dolphins

2009 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
150320th
Point Diff / Game
-1.920th
Net EPA / Play
-0.04320th

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
ATL logo
ATL@
L
07-19
-12
+4
L
-15
2
IND logo
IND
L
23-27
-4
+3
L
-11
3
LAC logo
LAC@
L
13-23
-10
+5
L
-32
4
BUF logo
BUF
W
38-10
+28
-1
W
8
5
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
31-27
+4
+3
W
18
6BYE WEEK
7
NO logo
NO
L
34-46
-12
+6.5
L
-28
8
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
30-25
+5
+3.5
W
19
9
NE logo
NE@
L
17-27
-10
+11
W
13
10
TB logo
TB
W
25-23
+2
-10
L
-1
11
CAR logo
CAR@
W
24-17
+7
+3.5
W
15
12
BUF logo
BUF@
L
14-31
-17
-3.5
L
-15
13
NE logo
NE
W
22-21
+1
+5.5
W
15
14
JAX logo
JAX@
W
14-10
+4
+1.5
W
9
15
TEN logo
TEN@
L
24-27
-3
+5
W
6
16
HOU logo
HOU
L
20-27
-7
-1
L
-18
17
PIT logo
PIT
L
24-30
-6
+3
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.04
12th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
19th
EPA / Rush
+0.03
3rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.08
28th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
21st
EPA / Rush
-0.02
24th
Sack EPA
-3.28
15th
Turnover EPA
-7.76
8th
Point Differential
-1.9
20th
Points For
22.5
14th
Points Against
24.4
25th
Total Yards
337.7
17th
Passing Yards
160.1
23rd
Rushing Yards
139.6
5th
Total Yards Allowed
349.6
21st
Passing Allowed
212.8
29th
Rushing Allowed
114.9
17th

Conversions For

3rd Down
49%
1st
4th Down
72%
2nd
Red Zone
61%
5th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
35%
5th
4th Down
53%
22nd
Red Zone
47%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
18th
Created
1.4
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
24th
Created
0.9
16th

Fumbles

Lost
0.6
8th
Created
0.4
30th