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Miami Dolphins

2011 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
6-10
nfelo Rating
155513th
Point Diff / Game
+1.014th
Net EPA / Play
+0.02213th

2011 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
NE logo
NE
L
24-38
-14
+7
L
-14
2
HOU logo
HOU
L
13-23
-10
+3
L
-14
3
CLE logo
CLE@
L
16-17
-1
-1.5
L
9
4
LAC logo
LAC@
L
16-26
-10
+6.5
L
-37
5BYE WEEK
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
L
06-24
-18
+7
L
-21
7
DEN logo
DEN
L
15-18
-3
+1
L
-19
8
NYG logo
NYG@
L
17-20
-3
+9.5
W
12
9
KC logo
KC@
W
31-03
+28
+5.5
W
29
10
WAS logo
WAS
W
20-09
+11
-4
W
11
11
BUF logo
BUF
W
35-08
+27
-3
W
24
12
DAL logo
DAL@
L
19-20
-1
+7
W
16
13
OAK logo
OAK
W
34-14
+20
-3
W
17
14
PHI logo
PHI
L
10-26
-16
-3
L
-19
15
BUF logo
BUF@
W
30-23
+7
-1
W
10
16
NE logo
NE@
L
24-27
-3
+7
W
40
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
19-17
+2
-2
P
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.03
18th
EPA / Pass
-0.03
17th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
20th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.05
11th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
14th
EPA / Rush
-0.10
9th
Sack EPA
-5.10
29th
Turnover EPA
-5.85
21st
Point Differential
+1.0
14th
Points For
20.6
20th
Points Against
19.6
6th
Total Yards
317.4
23rd
Passing Yards
177.9
22nd
Rushing Yards
124.2
10th
Total Yards Allowed
345.3
15th
Passing Allowed
236.4
30th
Rushing Allowed
95.8
4th

Conversions For

3rd Down
33%
26th
4th Down
38%
19th
Red Zone
45%
24th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
34%
4th
4th Down
50%
23rd
Red Zone
43%
5th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
19th
Created
1.1
28th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
9th
Created
1.0
17th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
27th
Created
0.1
32nd