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Miami Dolphins

2016 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-7
nfelo Rating
148020th
Point Diff / Game
-2.124th
Net EPA / Play
-0.04826th

2016 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
SEA logo
SEA@
L
10-12
-2
+10.5
W
25
2
NE logo
NE@
L
24-31
-7
+6
L
22
3
CLE logo
CLE
W
30-24
+6
-10
L
-2
4
CIN logo
CIN@
L
07-22
-15
+7.5
L
-18
5
TEN logo
TEN
L
17-30
-13
-2.5
L
-40
6
PIT logo
PIT
W
30-15
+15
+7.5
W
18
7
BUF logo
BUF
W
28-25
+3
+2.5
W
23
8BYE WEEK
9
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
27-23
+4
-4
P
10
10
LAC logo
LAC@
W
31-24
+7
+4.5
W
16
11
LAR logo
LAR@
W
14-10
+4
-1
W
37
12
SF logo
SF
W
31-24
+7
-7
P
-12
13
BAL logo
BAL@
L
06-38
-32
+3.5
L
-19
14
ARI logo
ARI
W
26-23
+3
+2
W
-75
15
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
34-13
+21
-2.5
W
66
16
BUF logo
BUF@
W
34-31
+3
+4.5
W
14
17
NE logo
NE
L
14-35
-21
+8
L
-5
18
PIT logo
PIT@
L
12-30
-18
+12
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.05
21st
EPA / Pass
+0.05
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.08
19th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.00
19th
EPA / Pass
+0.02
12th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
31st
Sack EPA
-3.60
13th
Turnover EPA
-6.47
13th
Point Differential
-2.1
24th
Points For
22.1
19th
Points Against
24.1
19th
Total Yards
331.2
25th
Passing Yards
157.5
32nd
Rushing Yards
110.4
14th
Total Yards Allowed
382.3
29th
Passing Allowed
190.9
11th
Rushing Allowed
142.7
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
37%
22nd
4th Down
25%
32nd
Red Zone
55%
14th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
6th
4th Down
56%
20th
Red Zone
57%
22nd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.4
18th
Created
1.7
5th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.9
20th
Created
1.1
7th

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
11th
Created
0.6
11th