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Miami Dolphins

2018 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
7-9
nfelo Rating
137725th
Point Diff / Game
-7.130th
Net EPA / Play
-0.15430th

2018 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN
W
27-20
+7
5
2
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
20-12
+8
+3
W
10
3
OAK logo
OAK
W
28-20
+8
-3
W
13
4
NE logo
NE@
L
07-38
-31
+6.5
L
-25
5
CIN logo
CIN@
L
17-27
-10
+6
L
-82
6
CHI logo
CHI
W
31-28
+3
+7
W
25
7
DET logo
DET
L
21-32
-11
+3
L
-2
8
HOU logo
HOU@
L
23-42
-19
+7.5
L
-9
9
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
13-06
+7
-3
W
4
10
GB logo
GB@
L
12-31
-19
+12.5
L
40
11BYE WEEK
12
IND logo
IND@
L
24-27
-3
+9
W
6
13
BUF logo
BUF
W
21-17
+4
-3.5
W
-14
14
NE logo
NE
W
34-33
+1
+9
W
13
15
MIN logo
MIN@
L
17-41
-24
+7.5
L
-29
16
JAX logo
JAX
L
07-17
-10
-3
L
-13
17
BUF logo
BUF@
L
17-42
-25
+5.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.14
28th
EPA / Pass
-0.13
29th
EPA / Rush
-0.11
27th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.02
23rd
EPA / Pass
+0.09
25th
EPA / Rush
-0.01
24th
Sack EPA
-6.58
32nd
Turnover EPA
-6.68
11th
Point Differential
-7.1
30th
Points For
19.9
26th
Points Against
27.1
27th
Total Yards
290.0
31st
Passing Yards
157.5
29th
Rushing Yards
108.6
19th
Total Yards Allowed
391.2
29th
Passing Allowed
200.1
13th
Rushing Allowed
145.3
31st

Conversions For

3rd Down
30%
31st
4th Down
62%
8th
Red Zone
52%
27th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
43%
28th
4th Down
40%
3rd
Red Zone
61%
20th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.6
25th
Created
1.6
7th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
1.3
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
29th
Created
0.3
28th