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  4. 2009
MIN logo

Minnesota Vikings

2009 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
17151st
Point Diff / Game
+10.32nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1832nd

2009 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
CLE logo
CLE@
W
34-20
+14
-4.5
W
31
2
DET logo
DET@
W
27-13
+14
-10
W
11
3
SF logo
SF
W
27-24
+3
-6.5
L
-17
4
GB logo
GB
W
30-23
+7
-5
W
26
5
LAR logo
LAR@
W
38-10
+28
-10.5
W
26
6
BAL logo
BAL
W
33-31
+2
-3
L
7
7
PIT logo
PIT@
L
17-27
-10
+6
L
-16
8
GB logo
GB@
W
38-26
+12
+3.5
W
19
9BYE WEEK
10
DET logo
DET
W
27-10
+17
-17
P
2
11
SEA logo
SEA
W
35-09
+26
-11
W
15
12
CHI logo
CHI
W
36-10
+26
-10.5
W
24
13
ARI logo
ARI@
L
17-30
-13
-3.5
L
-15
14
CIN logo
CIN
W
30-10
+20
-6.5
W
1
15
CAR logo
CAR@
L
07-26
-19
-8.5
L
-22
16
CHI logo
CHI@
L
30-36
-6
-8.5
L
-8
17
NYG logo
NYG
W
44-07
+37
-8.5
W
76
18BYE WEEK
19
DAL logo
DAL
W
34-03
+31
-3
W
13
20
NO logo
NO@
L
28-31
-3
+4
W
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.09
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.25
3rd
EPA / Rush
-0.16
32nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.09
3rd
EPA / Pass
-0.02
12th
EPA / Rush
-0.20
1st
Sack EPA
-3.84
19th
Turnover EPA
-6.09
25th
Point Differential
+10.3
2nd
Points For
29.6
3rd
Points Against
19.2
8th
Total Yards
381.8
6th
Passing Yards
194.3
15th
Rushing Yards
121.8
11th
Total Yards Allowed
299.6
4th
Passing Allowed
197.5
24th
Rushing Allowed
86.3
1st

Conversions For

3rd Down
45%
5th
4th Down
64%
8th
Red Zone
62%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
33%
2nd
4th Down
40%
4th
Red Zone
48%
11th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
4th
Created
1.5
21st

Interceptions

Thrown
0.5
1st
Created
0.7
27th

Fumbles

Lost
0.8
24th
Created
0.8
5th