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NE logo

New England Patriots

2012 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
13-5
nfelo Rating
17191st
Point Diff / Game
+12.41st
Net EPA / Play
+0.1713rd

2012 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
TEN logo
TEN@
W
34-13
+21
-5
W
14
2
ARI logo
ARI
L
18-20
-2
-13.5
L
-29
3
BAL logo
BAL@
L
30-31
-1
+3
W
1
4
BUF logo
BUF@
W
52-28
+24
-3.5
W
17
5
DEN logo
DEN
W
31-21
+10
-6
W
-4
6
SEA logo
SEA@
L
23-24
-1
-4
L
-12
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
29-26
+3
-11
L
-8
8
LAR logo
LAR@
W
45-07
+38
-7
W
19
9BYE WEEK
10
BUF logo
BUF
W
37-31
+6
-13.5
L
-13
11
IND logo
IND
W
59-24
+35
-10
W
16
12
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
49-19
+30
-7
W
19
13
MIA logo
MIA@
W
23-16
+7
-7.5
L
-16
14
HOU logo
HOU
W
42-14
+28
-5.5
W
34
15
SF logo
SF
L
34-41
-7
-4
L
-13
16
JAX logo
JAX@
W
23-16
+7
-14
L
-20
17
MIA logo
MIA
W
28-00
+28
-11.5
W
15
18BYE WEEK
19
HOU logo
HOU
W
41-28
+13
-9.5
W
9
20
BAL logo
BAL
L
13-28
-15
-7.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.18
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.26
1st
EPA / Rush
+0.04
3rd
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
17th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
19th
EPA / Rush
-0.12
4th
Sack EPA
-2.28
2nd
Turnover EPA
-4.76
26th
Point Differential
+12.4
1st
Points For
33.9
1st
Points Against
21.5
10th
Total Yards
429.5
1st
Passing Yards
223.4
9th
Rushing Yards
134.1
7th
Total Yards Allowed
375.3
26th
Passing Allowed
251.7
31st
Rushing Allowed
102.3
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
48%
1st
4th Down
64%
5th
Red Zone
68%
1st

Conversions Against

3rd Down
39%
20th
4th Down
44%
13th
Red Zone
57%
23rd

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
3rd
Created
2.3
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
5th
Created
1.2
6th

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
8th
Created
1.2
2nd