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NE logo

New England Patriots

2017 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
15-4
nfelo Rating
16931st
Point Diff / Game
+9.42nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.1523rd

2017 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
KC logo
KC
L
27-42
-15
-8
L
-24
2
NO logo
NO@
W
36-20
+16
-6
W
29
3
HOU logo
HOU
W
36-33
+3
-13.5
L
-3
4
CAR logo
CAR
L
30-33
-3
-9.5
L
-18
5
TB logo
TB@
W
19-14
+5
-4
W
-1
6
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
24-17
+7
-9.5
L
-12
7
ATL logo
ATL
W
23-07
+16
-3
W
6
8
LAC logo
LAC
W
21-13
+8
-7
W
-18
9BYE WEEK
10
DEN logo
DEN@
W
41-16
+25
-7
W
36
11
OAK logo
OAK@
W
33-08
+25
-7
W
41
12
MIA logo
MIA
W
35-17
+18
-16.5
W
-3
13
BUF logo
BUF@
W
23-03
+20
-7.5
W
0
14
MIA logo
MIA@
L
20-27
-7
-10.5
L
-31
15
PIT logo
PIT@
W
27-24
+3
-2.5
W
28
16
BUF logo
BUF
W
37-16
+21
-11
W
9
17
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
26-06
+20
-16
W
-9
18BYE WEEK
19
TEN logo
TEN
W
35-14
+21
-13.5
W
20
20
JAX logo
JAX
W
24-20
+4
-7.5
L
-38
21
PHI logo
PHI
L
33-41
-8
-4.5
L
-66

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.16
1st
EPA / Pass
+0.24
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.04
8th
Def. EPA / Play
+0.01
26th
EPA / Pass
+0.07
24th
EPA / Rush
+0.01
30th
Sack EPA
-3.74
14th
Turnover EPA
-2.84
31st
Point Differential
+9.4
2nd
Points For
28.9
2nd
Points Against
19.5
7th
Total Yards
405.6
1st
Passing Yards
261.2
2nd
Rushing Yards
113.1
15th
Total Yards Allowed
370.9
30th
Passing Allowed
225.6
28th
Rushing Allowed
114.0
20th

Conversions For

3rd Down
42%
8th
4th Down
63%
4th
Red Zone
63%
3rd

Conversions Against

3rd Down
40%
22nd
4th Down
48%
17th
Red Zone
47%
7th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
0.8
1st
Created
0.9
27th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.4
2nd
Created
0.7
22nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.4
6th
Created
0.3
30th