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NE logo

New England Patriots

2019 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
12-5
nfelo Rating
16545th
Point Diff / Game
+11.12nd
Net EPA / Play
+0.2202nd

2019 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PIT logo
PIT
W
33-03
+30
-6
W
32
2
MIA logo
MIA@
W
43-00
+43
-18
W
52
3
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
30-14
+16
-21
L
-9
4
BUF logo
BUF@
W
16-10
+6
-7
L
-22
5
WAS logo
WAS@
W
33-07
+26
-16.5
W
39
6
NYG logo
NYG
W
35-14
+21
-17
W
-0
7
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
33-00
+33
-9.5
W
7
8
CLE logo
CLE
W
27-13
+14
-10
W
-6
9
BAL logo
BAL@
L
20-37
-17
-3
L
-12
10BYE WEEK
11
PHI logo
PHI@
W
17-10
+7
-4.5
W
-5
12
DAL logo
DAL
W
13-09
+4
-5.5
L
-23
13
HOU logo
HOU@
L
22-28
-6
-3.5
L
-11
14
KC logo
KC
L
16-23
-7
-3
L
-22
15
CIN logo
CIN@
W
34-13
+21
-10.5
W
4
16
BUF logo
BUF
W
24-17
+7
-6.5
W
10
17
MIA logo
MIA
L
24-27
-3
-17
L
-19
18
TEN logo
TEN
L
13-20
-7
-5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.02
16th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
18th
EPA / Rush
-0.07
15th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.24
1st
EPA / Pass
-0.31
1st
EPA / Rush
-0.10
9th
Sack EPA
-3.02
5th
Turnover EPA
-4.27
28th
Point Differential
+11.1
2nd
Points For
25.5
7th
Points Against
14.4
1st
Total Yards
351.5
14th
Passing Yards
193.6
20th
Rushing Yards
106.1
18th
Total Yards Allowed
274.4
1st
Passing Allowed
151.4
4th
Rushing Allowed
101.7
8th

Conversions For

3rd Down
38%
18th
4th Down
38%
26th
Red Zone
49%
26th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
26%
1st
4th Down
36%
6th
Red Zone
52%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.1
8th
Created
2.1
2nd

Interceptions

Thrown
0.6
10th
Created
1.5
1st

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
15th
Created
0.5
18th