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NE logo

New England Patriots

2021 Season

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
10-8
nfelo Rating
16027th
Point Diff / Game
+7.24th
Net EPA / Play
+0.1334th

2021 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
MIA logo
MIA
L
16-17
-1
-3.5
L
3
2
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
25-06
+19
-6
W
15
3
NO logo
NO
L
13-28
-15
-3
L
-12
4
TB logo
TB
L
17-19
-2
+7
W
4
5
HOU logo
HOU@
W
25-22
+3
-8
L
-13
6
DAL logo
DAL
L
29-35
-6
+3.5
L
-10
7
NYJ logo
NYJ
W
54-13
+41
-7
W
27
8
LAC logo
LAC@
W
27-24
+3
+3.5
W
6
9
CAR logo
CAR@
W
24-06
+18
-3
W
10
10
CLE logo
CLE
W
45-07
+38
-1
W
20
11
ATL logo
ATL@
W
25-00
+25
-7
W
27
12
TEN logo
TEN
W
36-13
+23
-7
W
43
13
BUF logo
BUF@
W
14-10
+4
+3
W
7
14BYE WEEK
15
IND logo
IND@
L
17-27
-10
+1.5
L
-35
16
BUF logo
BUF
L
21-33
-12
-1
L
-16
17
JAX logo
JAX
W
50-10
+40
-16
W
25
18
MIA logo
MIA@
L
24-33
-9
-5.5
L
-7
19
BUF logo
BUF@
L
17-47
-30
+4.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
+0.06
5th
EPA / Pass
+0.10
10th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
9th
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
5th
EPA / Pass
-0.07
5th
EPA / Rush
+0.02
27th
Sack EPA
-3.43
8th
Turnover EPA
-6.86
6th
Point Differential
+7.2
4th
Points For
26.6
7th
Points Against
19.4
3rd
Total Yards
351.1
15th
Passing Yards
209.3
12th
Rushing Yards
124.6
8th
Total Yards Allowed
320.3
7th
Passing Allowed
134.6
2nd
Rushing Allowed
126.5
24th

Conversions For

3rd Down
44%
7th
4th Down
71%
1st
Red Zone
63%
7th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
38%
9th
4th Down
53%
16th
Red Zone
53%
8th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.3
15th
Created
1.7
4th

Interceptions

Thrown
0.8
17th
Created
1.3
2nd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
17th
Created
0.4
16th