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  4. 2023
NE logo

New England Patriots

2023 Season

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

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Season Overview

Record
4-13
nfelo Rating
141924th
Point Diff / Game
-7.629th
Net EPA / Play
-0.16130th

2023 Schedule and Results

nfelo by week
Week / OpponentResultScoreMarginSpreadATS Resultnfelo Change
1
PHI logo
PHI
L
20-25
-5
+3.5
L
-1
2
MIA logo
MIA
L
17-24
-7
+1.5
L
-8
3
NYJ logo
NYJ@
W
15-10
+5
-2.5
W
4
4
DAL logo
DAL@
L
03-38
-35
+6
L
-21
5
NO logo
NO
L
00-34
-34
-2
L
-34
6
OAK logo
OAK@
L
17-21
-4
+3
L
-7
7
BUF logo
BUF
W
29-25
+4
+7.5
W
23
8
MIA logo
MIA@
L
17-31
-14
+7.5
L
-13
9
WAS logo
WAS
L
17-20
-3
-3
L
-10
10
IND logo
IND
L
06-10
-4
+1
L
-30
11BYE WEEK
12
NYG logo
NYG@
L
07-10
-3
-4.5
L
-5
13
LAC logo
LAC
L
00-06
-6
+4.5
L
-30
14
PIT logo
PIT@
W
21-18
+3
+5.5
W
33
15
KC logo
KC
L
17-27
-10
+10.5
W
-34
16
DEN logo
DEN@
W
26-23
+3
+7
W
18
17
BUF logo
BUF@
L
21-27
-6
+15
W
6
18
NYJ logo
NYJ
L
03-17
-14
-2.5
L
0

Ranks

Off. EPA / Play
-0.25
32nd
EPA / Pass
-0.28
31st
EPA / Rush
-0.09
22nd
Def. EPA / Play
-0.08
6th
EPA / Pass
+0.01
20th
EPA / Rush
-0.19
1st
Sack EPA
-4.92
20th
Turnover EPA
-8.47
4th
Point Differential
-7.6
29th
Points For
13.9
31st
Points Against
21.5
14th
Total Yards
276.2
30th
Passing Yards
155.8
31st
Rushing Yards
95.7
25th
Total Yards Allowed
302.3
6th
Passing Allowed
169.5
8th
Rushing Allowed
93.3
3rd

Conversions For

3rd Down
30%
31st
4th Down
36%
32nd
Red Zone
58%
11th

Conversions Against

3rd Down
36%
7th
4th Down
53%
20th
Red Zone
46%
5th

Turnovers / Game

Committed
1.8
27th
Created
1.0
26th

Interceptions

Thrown
1.2
30th
Created
0.6
23rd

Fumbles

Lost
0.5
16th
Created
0.4
26th